Returning inflation to the target level of 4 percent in Russia will require a number of measures aimed at slowing the growth of budget expenditures, cooling the economy and labor market, large-scale import substitution and stabilizing the ruble exchange rate. This view emerged in our interview with Gazeta. Ru” was stated by independent economist, former deputy chairman of Otkritie Bank Konstantin Tserazov.
“All else being equal, inflation could slow to around 5 percent by the end of this year as consumer demand cools due to last year’s high base, higher rates, and the effect of the weakening ruble wears off in 2023.” noted the expert.
According to him, the imbalance between supply and demand of goods and services in the Russian Federation over the past few years was caused by several factors: an increase in the real disposable income of the population by an average of 7.6% per year, the departure of foreign producers, the devaluation of the ruble last year and reduced competition in some markets due to imports increasing dependency.
“A lot in the future will depend on the success of import substitution, the dynamics of the ruble and the budgetary impulse determined by energy prices and Western sanctions, that is, how strongly the authorities will continue to increase budget spending. Stimulate demand,” Tserazov emphasized.
He noted that the Bank of Russia sees the target level of 4 percent as a kind of compromise to maintain price stability, taking into account the characteristics of the Russian economy (level of competition, production efficiency, consumption structure and price volatility in some countries). commodity groups.
“Inflation in Western countries is traditionally lower due to higher overall productivity, a rich domestic market and the lower volatility of national currencies compared to the ruble,” the independent economist said.
Before that, Nabiullina had considered the possibility of “black swans” in the Russian economy.
It was previously known that Russians are rejecting loans en masse in 2024.