The growth of Russia’s gross domestic product (GDP) in 2024 will be 1.5% compared to the 2023 level. This forecast was given to socialbites.ca by Konstantin Tuzov, a researcher at the Structural Research Laboratory of the Institute of Applied Economic Research of the Presidential Academy.
This is how he commented on Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin’s statement that Russia’s economic growth trend will continue in 2024.
“Currently, the expectations of the Russian economy for 2024 look quite positive. The real positive contribution to GDP dynamics will come from household expenditures and investments. The economist noted that citizens’ real incomes increased significantly last year due to rising wages due to increased labor demand.
According to him, the labor market will remain scarce in 2024: in many areas, supply will be much lower than demand. Therefore, Tuzov expects that citizens’ incomes will continue to increase, allowing them to spend more.
“In 2023, many domestic companies from both the high-tech sectors of the economy and the mining industries made good profits, and in 2024, a large part of these profits will be spent on investments. “In addition, the state will continue to be a major investor, directing significant amounts of budget money to the creation of infrastructure facilities and other investments,” he said.
The expert added that the concerns are associated with external shocks: price fluctuations in the energy market, a decrease in physical production and export volumes, and the strengthening of major currencies against the ruble. In addition, the situation regarding inflation remains unclear; The economist concluded that it is not yet possible to draw clear conclusions about whether the Central Bank will be able to reverse the inflation trend with the current key rate level (16%). .
On March 12, Mishustin announced that growth in Russia’s GDP will continue in 2024. The Prime Minister stated that GDP grew by 4.6% on an annual basis in January. According to the first estimate, Russia’s GDP in 2023 increased by 3.6%, which almost coincides with the forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development, as evidenced by Rosstat data.
Previously at BCS appreciated Putin’s statement regarding the threat of Russia losing part of the oil market.