EU and US representatives are concerned about shortages and high prices for aluminum, which is energy-intensive and critical to the industry, as it is in short supply due to sanctions. writes about this RIA News.
At the same time, a ban on Russian aluminum imports is planned to be included in the next sanctions package against Moscow, according to Reuters.
Brussels’ decision, on the one hand, looks logical – in 2022, supplies from the Russian Federation to the EU will drop by a third, to 550 thousand tons. However, experts warn: It is not certain that Europe will be able to close the gap in volumes with purchases from the Middle East.
»Last year, 550 thousand tons of Russian aluminum constituted 8% of the European market. A quick replacement of this volume from other sources is not possible,” notes Antonina Levashenko, head of the Russian Center for Qualification and Analysis of OECD Standards at the Presidential Academy.
Bahrain and the UAE produced only 4.3 million tonnes of metal in 2022. They currently supply the lion’s share (over 90%) to Asia under signed contracts. According to economist Nikolai Neplyuev, Europe needs at least 5 million tonnes annually of vital importance.
Brussels will face a serious problem regarding the quality of raw materials. “Russian aluminum is particularly energy efficient; its carbon footprint is 30-70% lower than other large producers,” Levashenko emphasizes.
This is especially critical for the production of “wire rod”, the raw material for environmentally friendly cables in “green” industries. More than a third of Europe’s wire rod imports (71 thousand tons) in 2022 came from the Russian Federation.
But the real threat is fierce competition with the United States for supplies to the Middle East.
“The entire capacity of the region will not be enough to meet the demand of the two largest consumers. A trade war is real,” warns independent expert Leonid Khazanov.
According to him, Washington could also intervene in some purchases from China, which would revive the threat of dumping and deal a blow to the survival of European factories.
“Hundreds of companies in the EU will be under attack,” Khazanov said.
Name of Pavel Sevostyanov from REU. Plekhanov directly states the possible consequences.
“90 percent of the regional capacity has shrunk in Asia. It is impossible to replace Russian materials; hundreds of companies will close, which will threaten the existence of the entire aluminum industry in Europe,” Sevostyanov said.
Before that, it was known that Russia earned more than $50 billion from redirecting hydrocarbon supplies.
Previously USA was threatened Sanctions imposed by Raiffeisen Bank on Russia.