Flat prices will drop by 10 percent by the end of the year. When is the best time to buy housing Economist Shedko predicted a 10% drop in apartment prices in Russia by the end of the year 02/25/2024, 08:33

Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said that prices for apartments in new buildings will rise sharply in 2023 due to concessional mortgage programs. At the same time, according to him, there is now stability in housing prices in Russia. Therefore, he announced that apartment prices will no longer rise sharply.

According to the latest Domklik data, the average cost per square meter in the primary market in Russia in January 2024 was 132,971 rubles. So on average, for example, an apartment with an area of ​​​​53 square meters. m on the primary market can be purchased for almost 7 million rubles. In the secondary market, the price per square meter in January 2024 reached 106,530 rubles. Apartment with an area of ​​53 m2. m can be purchased for an average of 5.6 million rubles.

Ruslan Syrtsov, General Director of the Metrium company, told socialbites.ca that in 2024, housing prices in Russia will most likely at least stop or at most begin to decline.

“We do not expect a radical decline in buyer activity. This means that a more likely scenario is that prices will be frozen in some development projects, while in others the rate of increase in the cost of apartments in new buildings will be reduced. In the secondary housing market, prices will fall as secondary buyers have no alternative other than expensive mortgages. However, owners of ready-made apartments will also reduce their supply and postpone their own new home purchases,” Syrtsov predicted.

Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Finance at the Russian University of Economics for Sustainable Development. GV Plekhanova Maria Ermilova noted in an interview with socialbites.ca that more and more offers are appearing for both primary and secondary apartments.

“In addition, houses built within the scope of individual housing construction can also serve as competitors. Therefore, we are likely to see a decrease in prices and additional promotions on prime real estate towards the summer. After all, we must take into account that there may still be a need for repairs, furniture and, in general, a certain waiting period for the delivery of housing,” explained Ermilova.

According to him, summer is generally considered a low season for the real estate market, but in any case, it is necessary to monitor the situation.

Doctor of Economic Sciences, Professor of the Department of State and Municipal Administration of the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation Yuri Shedko admitted: Apartment prices in Russia may fall by a total of 10 percent by the end of 2024.

“However, the magnitude of this reduction will vary significantly depending on the region. (since the pace of new housing construction is different) and the “age” of the home. (Apartments built before 2005 require more expensive repairs and should therefore be cheaper)“, explained the economist.

According to Shedko, the decline in house prices in Russia may continue until the end of the first quarter of 2025.

When is the best time to buy a flat?

Syrtsov noted that while the concessional mortgage is in force (until July 1, 2024) you can buy an affordable apartment in a new building.

“If a person lives in a city where housing prices are relatively reasonable, a limit of 6 million rubles is enough to buy a decent apartment. Family and IT mortgages are also in force, but it is possible for these schemes to be changed, so it is better to take out the loan early. If there is no need for a loan and the person is going to buy a second flat, prices in old houses have already started to fall and this process will continue at least until the summer, so you can wait a while for more reasonable prices and accommodation. sellers,” Syrtsov explained.

According to Syrtsov, Mortgages account for more than half of transactions in the secondary housing market and nearly 70% in the new building market. According to the expert, it is extremely difficult to buy a house without a loan, except when a person sells an old flat and buys a new flat for the same amount.

“However, it is also difficult to sell an old flat if loan interest rates are high.

Therefore, if loan interest rates remain high, various exchanges, exchanges and alternative transactions for a small surcharge will become widespread in the secondary housing market. The new building market, on the contrary, will develop due to mortgages,” Syrtsov concluded.

Svetlana Bardina, director of the residential real estate sales department of Summa Elements Group of Companies, told socialbites.ca that during individual negotiations, sellers often agree to a discount of up to 5%, and in the case of an urgent sale and a large amount of the transaction – 7-10%. until.

According to Shedko’s calculations, the purchase of mortgaged housing in 2024 will still be valid if prices fall and will reach 76-82 percent.

There is no universal recipe for when to buy an apartment with a mortgage, as you need to evaluate a number of factors.

“There are always liquid apartments on the market, and the lower the demand, the greater the share of such properties. As demand recovers, the most attractive options leave the market first. Therefore, you need to buy an apartment when there is a real need for accommodation or investment, and the main thing here is to evaluate the existing risks and prospects regarding the growth of real estate prices, changes in supply and opportunities to reduce the debt burden. future,” advised Sergey Zaitsev, sales manager of the federal company “Floors”.

According to Shedko, the best time to buy an apartment with a mortgage is the period when the interest on bank deposits is higher than the interest on mortgage loans.

“The advisability of purchasing an apartment with immediate payment depends on the capabilities and needs of the buyer. If there is money to buy it, you should not wait for a price reduction, as it may be insignificant or insignificant. “If there is no need to rush to improve housing conditions, you can wait to buy until the end of 2024 or the beginning of 2025, when housing prices will decrease to their minimum and become more affordable,” he said.

What are you thinking?

Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina said on February 16 that the peak of housing price increase in Russia has passed and that she does not expect a high increase in value. Experts interviewed by socialbites.ca predicted that the increase in apartment prices will at least stop and a decrease of at most 10% by the end of 2024. When is the best time to buy real estate and is it worth taking a mortgage for it – in our material.

Source: Gazeta


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