The conflict in the Red Sea between the US-led coalition and the Houthis in Yemen coincides with a period of increasing importance of the region in terms of global oil trade. He writes this in his column in the magazine. Forbes economic commentator Kirill Rodionov
If 4.9 million barrels of oil per day pass through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, in 2021, in the first half of 2023 this figure is already 8.8 million barrels, or 12% of world trade.
This growth is associated with the impact of sanctions on the Russian Federation due to increased oil supplies from the Middle East to Europe, as well as oil supplies from Russia to India and China via the Red Sea. The expert writes that this route remains important for the supply of liquefied natural gas from Qatar to the EU.
Houthi bombing of ships in the Red Sea has forced companies to avoid the danger zone, increasing logistics costs. However, the economist believes that in the long term, the conflict will have a limited impact on commodity markets compared to the shocks of 2021-2022.
In 2023, oil, gas and coal prices have fallen 17-67% from their peak levels. Further declines are expected in the second half of the 2020s due to rising oil and gas supplies and slowing coal demand in China. Rodionov concluded that the conflict in the Red Sea could only slightly delay the period of low raw material prices.
Before this it was known how fallen Egypt’s revenues in January due to the situation in the Red Sea.
Previously in the USA saidWhy are they shooting the Houthis?