new buildings
In a conversation with socialbites.ca, General Director of the Metrium company, Ruslan Syrtsov, said that in Russia at the end of 2023 they will begin the gradual elimination of mortgages with state support at an annual rate of 8%.
“The authorities not only increased the minimum down payment for concessional mortgages to 30%, but also reduced the limit of such loans to 6 million rubles. As a result, there are fewer than 300 apartments left in the capital subject to concessional mortgage conditions. The expert said that only those who are ready to limit themselves to compact housing: a studio or a small one-room apartment should rush to take out such a loan.
Increasing the down payment to 30% is a serious “obstacle” and Demand for concessional mortgages will fall by approximately 20-30% In the first quarter of 2024, Valery Tumin, director of markets in Russia and CIS Fam Properties, suggested in a conversation with socialbites.ca.
According to the latest Domklik data, the average cost per square meter in the primary market in Russia in November 2023 was: 122,340 rubles. So, on average, an apartment with an area of u200bu200b53 square meters, for example, can almost be purchased in the primary market. 6.5 million rubles. Traditionally, the first payment will be required for a loan of 6 million rubles 2 million rubles.
“Banks have not yet increased the minimum contribution for primary programs (mortgage for new buildings). But most likely they will do this,” added Valery Emelyanov, stock market expert at BCS World of Investments.
Syrtsov did not rule out the possibility of completely abolishing privileged mortgages in Russia in the summer of 2024.
“Targeted programs remain under the same conditions. However, it is also possible to tighten them in order to save the budget. For this reason Russians are advised to hurry to get a family mortgage and IT mortgage. It is also possible to obtain a profitable market loan in the primary market. For example, you can implement a program with symbolic contributions for the first year of payments and then refinance the mortgage,” Syrtsov advised.
BitRiver financial analyst Vladislav Antonov emphasized that the maximum loan size is limited in the case of a family mortgage 12 million rubles Moscow, Moscow region, St. Petersburg and the Leningrad region and other regions – 6 million rubles.
“And there is a possibility that the relaxations for the four regions will be canceled and the maximum size of the family mortgage will be equalized for everyone. That’s why you need to hurry,” suggested Antonov.
Ready enclosure
According to the federal real estate company Etazhi, the average cost per square meter of apartments on the secondary market in Russia in November reached 119,130 rubles – this is a new record. In other words, an apartment with an average area of 53 square meters can be purchased. 6.3 million rubles.
Share of mortgage transactions in the secondary market by the end of 2023, according to Syrtsov’s forecasts decreased from 70% to 10%. Banks increased interest rates on completed mortgage loans following the increase in the Central Bank’s key interest rate; This rate has been increased five times since July, most recently to 16%. As a result, a mortgage for a second home can be issued on average by the end of the year. 16-17% yearly. Emelyanov explained that in some banks mortgage loan rates for finished apartments have already reached 20 percent, and in some cases they exceed 25 percent.
“Taking out a loan with these interest rates is extremely burdensome. Usually this is done by buyers who can pay most of the transaction amount in cash at once,” said Syrtsov.
Tumin, Moscow, St. He added that sellers of second apartments will have to offer discounts of up to 10% in the face of high rates in St. Petersburg and some other major cities.
According to experts, a complete recovery of the secondary market can only be possible by reducing the key interest and, accordingly, mortgage interest rates to 10-12%.
In a conversation with socialbites.ca, Sovcombank’s chief analyst Mikhail Vasiliev admitted that the National Bank will reduce the key rate to 12% by the end of 2024.
Should I get a mortgage?
Basically housing in Russia is very expensive and The price of any apartment purchased today will drop significantly in the coming yearsEmelyanov emphasized. He warned Russians against speculation on housing prices, saying that they are meaningless: future attempts to first buy and then sell an apartment at a higher price may not be successful in current conditions.
“The state prevents demand from falling by pumping money into the industry. If there is no urgent need to buy an apartment, it is better not to buy it now at all and wait until all government programs are canceled and prices drop enough for people to buy it themselves without subsidies from the budget. “If you still need an apartment and the choice is made in favor of a new building, you need to keep in mind that its real price (when sold in the future) may be much lower than the developer’s price,” the expert advised.
According to him, an approximate guide to this cost is the prices in secondary stores of neighboring residential complexes, where people buy themselves. If you do not take this nuance into account, you can live in an apartment for several years, pay off a loan worth millions and eventually sell it cheaper than your bank debt. Emelyanov came to the conclusion that you have to find yourself in a situation without money and an apartment.
“Overall, 2024 is not a good year for acquisitions. Prices, rates and barriers to entry remain high. “If you have enough money for a down payment, it is better to put it towards the deposit and wait until the real estate market in Russia cools down and mortgage rates return to normal,” he said.
According to Emelyanov, at 6% (family mortgage), the down payment for an apartment worth 5 million rubles will cost 0.5-1 million rubles. Monthly payments will be 25-30 thousand rubles per month. An apartment of the same size on the secondary market will cost about 4 million rubles. It can be purchased with a down payment of 400-800 thousand rubles and a monthly payment of approximately 60 thousand rubles.
“But when mortgage rates in the secondary market return to normal, for example, to 10 percent, loan payments will be equal to those in the primary market – about 30 thousand rubles per month. “Usually banks allow you to refinance loans taken at high rates,” the expert said.
That is, it would be possible to take out a new mortgage loan for a second apartment at a lower rate in order to pay off the existing apartment at a higher rate.