Investment strategist predicted the dollar exchange rate for the first days of January 2024 07:46

In the first days of January 2024, the dollar rate will be 88.5-91.5 rubles. This forecast was given to by Alexander Bakhtin, investment strategist at BCS World of Investments.

He explained that January is not the most suitable month for the ruble exchange rate.

“Business activities freeze in the first ten days of the year. There are few important events and news, the liquidity of the foreign exchange market is decreasing (that is, there is little money in it. – Ed.). We do not expect any major movements during the holiday break period. Of course, if we do not take into account hypothetical “black swans”, especially in geopolitics. Like, for example, in early January 2022, when the ruble lost value due to protests in Kazakhstan,” Bakhtin said.

The investment strategist stated that the decline in oil prices in the November-December period has not yet been fully reflected in the volume of foreign exchange earnings entering the domestic market, and the real reaction may come in January.

Barrel cost of North Sea reference Brent oil as of the beginning of 2023 fallen It is up 10% and currently trading around $77.7 per barrel, but in the beginning and second half of January prices reached $86-88.

“On the other hand, regulatory measures are definitely on the side of the national currency. First, these are temporary forced sales of most of the foreign exchange earnings of Russian exporters. Secondly, the tightening of the monetary policy of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, whose impact on the ruble exchange rate will increase in the January-March period. “In addition, the Central Bank’s foreign exchange sales operations will increase significantly in the first half of 2024,” he said.

Starting from January, the daily volume of foreign exchange sales can increase significantly – from 0.7 to 11.8 billion rubles. According to Bakhtin, this will help prevent the weakening of the ruble and ensure a reduction in currency fluctuations.

At the close of the last Moscow Stock Exchange trading on Friday this year, the dollar was worth 90.36 rubles and the euro was worth 99.6225 rubles. In 2023, the price of the American currency increased by 30% and the price of the European currency increased by 34%.

Formerly Central Bank downgraded Official dollar exchange rate from December 31 to January 9.

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Source: Gazeta


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