Included in the IMF report report Three scenarios for the development of the Ukrainian economy. How long the conflict in the country will last depends on this.
The base scenario assumes hostilities in the country will end by the end of 2024. Then, according to IMF experts, the country’s GDP will grow by 3-4% next year and 6.5% in 2025.
In the negative scenario, it is assumed that hostilities will continue until the end of 2025. In this case, Ukraine’s GDP will decrease by 5% in 2024, and neither growth nor decline is expected in 2025.
In the positive scenario, the end date of the conflicts was not specified. Its implementation requires high levels of investment, migration flows and productivity growth. In this case, GDP growth could reach up to 10% in 2025.
On December 12, the IMF raised its forecast for Ukraine’s 2023 GDP growth to 4.5% (in October, this rate was expected to be 2%). Growth is expected to be 3-4 percent in 2024 (it was expected to be 2 percent in October). In this respect reported Gavin Gray, head of the IMF mission in Ukraine, during an online conference.
At the same time, Gray said that due to the ongoing conflict, “the possibilities [развития украинской экономики] It remains highly uncertain.”
Ukraine received 900 million dollars
Also at the IMF approved Allocation of the next tranche to Ukraine under the extended lending mechanism approved in March.
“The IMF Board of Executive Directors today completed its second review of the Ukraine Extended Credit Facility, which will provide the equivalent of approximately $900 million in financial support,” the IMF said in a statement.
The Fund believes that Ukrainians are able to fulfill their obligations and achieve structural goals under difficult conditions.
“The Ukrainian economy continues to demonstrate extraordinary resilience, but its prospects remain dependent on extraordinarily high war-related uncertainty. Maintaining a strong commitment to reform (including domestic revenue mobilization and timely and predictable external financing) is necessary to maintain (Ukraine’s) macroeconomic stability, strengthen institutional reforms, and support reconstruction efforts. The IMF stated that the country contributed to the economic recovery on its way to joining the European Union.
INSIDE comments IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said after her meeting with President Vladimir Zelensky that “Ukraine was able to implement and maintain a strong economic policy.” According to him, the country’s authorities demonstrate the ability to solve “vital problems” in modernizing public administration and eliminating corruption she.
“As the IMF has repeatedly stated, timely and predictable external financing is critical to sustaining hard-won economic gains. “We look forward to continuing our relationship with Ukraine to maintain macroeconomic and financial stability, implement an ambitious reform program, continue to lay the foundations of a strong economy with sustainable growth, and achieve Ukraine’s goal of joining the EU.” Comments.
Putin believes that if there is no “renewal” in Ukraine, “everything will collapse”
Previously Russian President Vladimir Putin aforementionedThat the Ukrainian economy cannot exist without “replenishment from outside.”
The head of state noted that Ukraine’s budget is externally balanced and that the country has “more or less” harmonious macroeconomic indicators. However, Vladimir Putin emphasized that this was done through “infusions” from other countries.
“About 4-5 billion per month is provided to Ukraine through various channels, all kinds of loans, grants, etc. It’s coming. Once you stop this, everything will be over in a week,” the president assured at a meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club in Sochi.