Europe is entering a hot summer. Can the EU cope without Russian gas?

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EU expects a hot summer

Residents of European countries will face abnormally high temperatures as early as June 2022. A severe drought will be experienced in the southern regions of the continent, including Italy, Greece and Spain. Yevgeny Tishkovets, one of the leading experts of the Phobos Weather Center, told socialbites.ca that the average temperatures in June-August will exceed the climatic norm by several degrees.

“In June, the climate norm in most countries of Central and Southern Europe will be exceeded by 2-3°C. We will see the strongest temperature deviations in Spain, southern France, parts of Italy and the Balkan Peninsula. In July, values ​​will be 0.5-1°C above the norm in all European countries. A similar story will be seen across the continent in August. Except for Spain and France, where temperatures will exceed 2°C,” Tiskovets said.

He added that this month the southern regions of Europe will face a prolonged and abnormal drought.

June will be the most troubled summer month for Spain, Bulgaria, Southern France, Balkan countries, Italy, Greece and Romania. The precipitation deficit will average 60-80% of the monthly norm. The heatwave will affect most of the first month of summer. Dry weather will be replaced by heavy rain in July. However, the temperature will still remain above the climatic norms, ”explained Tishkovets.

Alexander Shuvalov, head of the Meteo prognostic center, agrees with him. According to him, the global warming trend has hit the EU as well.

“Global warming has reached 1.2°C in the last 50 years. In addition, extreme heat waves have noticeably intensified.

According to forecasts, Western European countries will experience an abnormally high heatwave in the summer of 2022. In such prolonged hot weather, the average temperature will exceed the climate norm by 4-5°C. Maximum levels in the southernmost part of Europe could approach 40°C,” Shuvalov summed up.

How much will power consumption increase?

Abnormally high temperatures in most European countries in June-August can lead to an increase in energy consumption by citizens and budgetary institutions. In addition, Sergey Kondratiev, deputy head of the Economics Department of the Institute of Energy and Finance, suggested that the demand for the installation of air conditioners, fans and cooling units in residential buildings will increase.

“The main driver of the increase in energy consumption during the peak summer seasons is air conditioning. During the daytime, when the weather is 30-32°C, energy consumption may increase by 10-15% on average compared to normal temperature periods.

The main question is whether restrictions will be imposed on the use of air conditioners in hot weather in EU countries. In Spain, for example, such announcements have been made in public places (including parks, patios, cafes, in some cases hospitals) and buildings. This could help citizens save money against the backdrop of a sharp rise in retail electricity prices. In Germany, for example, residents pay 30 cents per kWh,” he said.

According to Kondratyev, the uninterrupted operation of air conditioners was achieved mainly by gas production.

The hot summer of 2022 will cost EU countries around €8-10 billion without electricity savings. If Europeans agree to include a ban in rubles in their new payment plan for Russian gas, the costs will exceed €10 billion. .

Without additional supply from Moscow, the EU will have to purchase liquefied natural gas (LNG) from alternative suppliers, including Saudi Arabia. In this case, Europeans will inevitably face additional overpayments,” explained Kondratiev.

Will the EU increase Russia’s gas supply?

According to the expert, the only way out of the crisis will be to increase gas supplies directly from Russia. This option is much cheaper and faster than the Middle East transit.

“However, even now Russia’s gas supplies to Europe have fallen due to Western sanctions. The Yamal-Europe route through Poland has been closed, Ukraine is blocking the supply from the Sohranivka station, and pumping via Nord Stream 1 is not working at full capacity. About 34 million cubic meters per day were lost in Sokhranovka. As a result, it is possible to increase fuel supplies to the EU through the Sunzha transit corridor, which allows pumping up to 77 million cubic meters per day,” he said.

According to him, under current conditions, the EU can increase the supply of Russian raw materials by a maximum of 25-30 million cubic meters per day or 3 billion cubic meters during the summer. At current gas exchange prices, this will cost European countries more than 3 billion euros.

Another condition for increasing the Russian gas supply will be the need to quickly refuel underground storage facilities. Vasily Koltashov, head of the Center for Political and Economic Studies of the New Society Institute, said that this is necessary for the smooth transition of the autumn-winter period.

Europeans will do their best to fill the crates this summer. To implement this measure, citizens will inevitably need to save on energy consumption. Not everyone can afford to install an air conditioner. On cold nights in the south of Europe it is quite possible to do without heating. For example, I did not heat a house when I was living in Greece. But for the operation of chemical enterprises and the production of fertilizers, additional gas resources will be needed, otherwise the industry will stop. In case of a reduction in transit from Russia, the purchase of more expensive LNG will cost additional billions of euros,” Koltashov said.

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