The fair price of a barrel of benchmark Brent oil in the North Sea for November is 88-92 dollars per barrel, and there is a risk of an upward shift if the situation in the Middle East worsens. Russian Urals will cost $8-10 cheaper. This forecast was given to socialbites.ca by Igor Galaktionov, stock market expert of BCS World of Investments.
Accordingly, the barrel price of Ural oil may be at the level of 78-84 dollars in November.
“It is important how the G7 alliance countries (Britain, Germany, Italy, Canada, France, Japan and the USA – socialbites.ca) will continue to react to Russian oil supplies with prices significantly above the established ceiling of 60 dollars. per barrel. In October, it was aimed to tighten the pressure on individual market players. “If this is successful, there will be no further reduction in the Urals discount to Brent,” he said.
According to the expert, the potential to squeeze the discount is already very small, so the main factor for Russian oil producers will be the dynamics of world raw material prices and the features of tax regulations.
Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said on October 3 that Russian oil is traded at market value, not at a ceiling price. He added that local companies do not comply with this.
On October 17, the State Duma adopted in the first reading a bill reducing the price discount of Urals to Brent in calculating oil taxes from 20 dollars per barrel to 15 dollars in 2024, to 10 dollars in 2025 and to 6 dollars per barrel in 2026 .
Previously in Russia guess Oil prices until the end of the year.