Amid the escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, oil prices may currently exceed $100 per barrel of the North Sea Brent brand, but will be in the $80-90 range by the end of the year. This forecast was given to socialbites.ca by Andrei Loboda, economist and communications director at BitRiver.
The expert also noted that the fundamental factors supporting rising fuel prices are not enough to consolidate Brent above $95 per barrel.
“The EU economy is already experiencing a noticeable decline; It is experiencing near-zero growth and industrial production indicators are declining for the third quarter in a row. Most likely, by the end of the year, a neutral scenario will work, in which the balanced price of oil will be in the range of 80-90 dollars, which is very comfortable for Russian exporters and the budget. The expert stated that the calculation of next year’s budget rule will be based on a price of $ 60 per barrel.
According to him, oil prices have fallen recently due to the sharp increase in commercial inventories in the US last week. So, concerns arose about overstocking – excess supply in the market.
Loboda believes that if world oil prices remain at 70-80 dollars per barrel, Russia will still win.
“The discount for Russian Ural oil to Brent will be lower. This year, Russia is changing its customer base by redirecting oil export flows from Europe to Asia. Therefore, at the beginning of the year, Russian oil was sold at a large discount compared to world prices. “Now relations with regular consumers have been established and nothing prevents Moscow from selling oil at the real market price,” he said.
At the time of writing, Brent was priced at $89.19 a barrel on the London ICE exchange.
Previously Brent barrel price fallen It’s below $87 for the first time since October 13.