Experts in Russia are starting to evaluate the prospects of the microfinance market next year based on the results of the first half of the year and state that growth rates may drop to 5-10%. He writes about it”Kommersant” This is much lower than in the crisis year of 2022 and even worse than forecasts for 2023. The slowdown will be caused by the tightening of regulations in the sector, so not all participants will be able to cope with the new requirements. Analysts estimate that up to 40 percent of companies may leave the market.
The publication was introduced to the microfinance market review for the first half of the year prepared by Expert RA. The review shows that segment growth in 2024 is estimated at 5-10%, which corresponds to the growth rate in retail loans. This is significantly lower than in 2021 post-pandemic (51% increase) and 2022 crisis (22% increase). The review does not include data for the first half of the year, but overall for 2023, Expert RA predicts a growth of 10%, while market participants are talking about a growth of around 10-20%.
The authors of the review say that the market will have to adapt to “significant challenges, even in the absence of new economic shocks”, which will lead to a slowdown in growth.
Particular attention is being paid to the tightening of macroprudential restrictions that will come into force on October 1: no more than 15% of borrowers should have a debt burden of more than 80% and no more than 20% – from 50% to 80%. In addition, the Central Bank of Russia (CBRF) announced that the reserve rates of microloans will be increased at a rate not exceeding 0.8% per day for 2 to 6 months. “Given that the product economy and customer base significantly overlap with the most regulated segment of payday loans, the issuance of microloans for more than 30 days made it possible to significantly reduce the burden on capital,” the review says. . Expert RA believes that compliance with the new standards will either require a significant increase in the capital of MFOs or lead to business stagnation for players who do not have significant financial resources.
In the last half of the year and in 2022, MFOs made significant profits despite tightening regulations and crisis events. “The regulator’s actions are primarily aimed at limiting the supply of credit products, but the demand for them is still high, which allows participants to maintain growth despite the tightening of the regulatory burden,” said Valery Piven, head of the financial institutions rating group. in ACRA. He adds that the profitability of the MFO business is high enough for development due to a possible decline in profitability, and it will not be difficult for key players to attract new resources.
Formerly in the State Duma offered Prohibiting loans to foreign agencies.