The Central Bank of the Russian Federation may increase the key interest rate by 200 basis points to 14% annually at its meeting on September 15. This is Rossiyskaya Gazeta’s prediction given Mikhail Vasiliev, chief analyst of Sovcombank.
According to the expert, the regulator will also consider options to increase the interest rate by 100 and 300 basis points.
The analyst believes that one of the reasons for the increase may be the signal given by the head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina. Also this week, the regulator’s deputy chairman, Alexey Zabotkin, said pro-inflationary risks remain significant and the possibility of raising the key interest rate has not been ruled out.
Vasiliev stated that the weakening of the ruble exchange rate against other currencies increases inflationary expectations. Businessmen and importers also began to add a dollar of 100 rubles and above to their plans, which will be reflected in higher prices in the coming months. The pace of lending remains high and there is a shortage of personnel in the labor market, resulting in increased wages. This is also a factor that triggers inflation. According to Vasiliev, tight monetary policy will support the ruble exchange rate.
The Central Bank is holding an extraordinary meeting on August 15 raised You can increase the key rate by 350 basis points, up to 12% per year. Nabiullina at the conference “10 years of the Megaregulator: yesterday, today, tomorrow” September 1 announcedThe Central Bank can only reduce the interest rate if inflation decreases. The Bank of Russia will take into account various September data when making a decision on the rate.
Trifonov, formerly an analyst declaration socialbites.ca does not expect a significant increase in the key rate.