Maxim Osadchiy, head of the analytical department of BKF Bank, says that preferential mortgages in Russia are fraught with the formation of a new mortgage bubble. on this he declaration In an interview with Moskovsky Komsomolets.
According to Osadchiy, subsidized mortgage programs lead to faster growth in real estate prices. For example, the average price per square meter for new buildings in the first quarter of 2023 was 40% higher than in the secondary market. This is because the housing supply cannot keep up with demand, which has been heated by preferential programs.
“Preferential mortgages are subprime mortgages (that’s what problem mortgages were called during the 2008 banking crisis in the US. – Approx. Gazeta.ru), “low quality” mortgages aimed at people with relatively low incomes.” Osadchy said…
In addition, subsidized mortgages, according to the expert, stimulate the flow of cheap labor from Central Asia to Russia. In the first half of 2022 alone, 2.5 million immigrants entered the country. This, in turn, leads to an increase in inflation and an increase in social tension.
Osadchy warns that in the event of an economic downturn, low-income borrowers will be the first to have problems with their mortgage payments. This could trigger a fall in housing prices and a new mortgage crisis.
Currently, the share of preferential mortgages in Russia exceeded 39% The most popular programs are mortgage with 2% and family mortgage with 6% in the Far East. After raising the central bank’s key interest rate to 8.5%, banks also become Increase traditional mortgage rates.
before in Russia saidHow the rate hike will affect the housing market.