The dollar fell again in the stock market. Who benefits from a strong ruble?

The dollar fell 3.8% on Friday and reached 58 rubles as of 12:00 Moscow time, according to the Moscow Stock Exchange. Good The euro fell 4.7% to 59 rubles. The day before, the dollar was traded at 61 rubles, the euro – 62.60 rubles. The American currency has not had such low values ​​since the 2020 pandemic. The euro fell to its levels five years ago. Economist Tatyana Kulikova suggested that such dynamics are associated with the purchase of large amounts of foreign currency in the domestic market as payment for Russian gas.

“The exchange rate of the ruble is highly dependent on how much money enters the market. Western buyers postponed the moment of payment for gas, but now they began to pay. The large amount of currency that came in forced the course,” he said.

The expert also noted that his colleagues from economists and brokers are conducting a technical analysis of the foreign exchange market, the results of which can be used to predict to what maximum level this or that currency will fall.

“According to technical analysis, the figure of 48 rubles can be considered the bottom of the dollar. The main basis for such conclusions is the analysis of price charts, “charts”. Can we come to the figure of 48 rubles? and it’s hard to say when we’ll be able to come to him. This, of course, is a completely extreme scenario.

Much will depend on the steps the Central Bank will take to ease the currency control measures and the overall economic and political situation,” said Kulikova.

Who needs a strong ruble

Economists and financiers said that importers, companies with large foreign currency debts and buyers of imported equipment are benefiting from the strengthening of the ruble. Exporters and the budget will suffer from this situation.

“First of all, importers with significant revenues in Russia need a strong ruble. These include developers, retailers, telecommunications companies and the IT industry.”

Oleg Syrovatkin, Lead Analyst for Otkritie Investments Global Research, explained that a strong ruble is beneficial for companies that spend “cheap” money to buy goods abroad and receive an “expensive” ruble from sales in Russia.

“The most obvious example is retailers, but there are other industries that use the bulk of imported goods in their operations. For example, these are builders (buying equipment and building materials from abroad), telecom and IT (buying equipment),” Syrovatkin said. He added that a strong ruble is beneficial for Russian companies with high levels of foreign currency debt, especially if they generate revenue in rubles.

The head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank, Vladimir Evstifeev, added that the share of imports in the market of mechanical engineering, automobile and aircraft manufacturing, raw materials, pharmaceuticals and durable goods has traditionally been high.

“This list can be supplemented by companies purchasing imported equipment (where possible and in volumes where suppliers are ready to ship it). Dentists, for example,” said Evgeniya Kosheleva, Director of the Rosbank Office of Market Research and Strategy.

Who will lose in a strong ruble

According to Syrovatkin, excessive strengthening of the national currency can slow economic growth and significantly reduce the profits of the largest Russian taxpayers – vertically integrated companies from the oil and gas sectors. They are forced to sell their foreign exchange earnings at low prices.

“A strong ruble is unprofitable for exporters and the budget. Therefore, to maintain a certain balance, the ruble exchange rate must be market-oriented, said Anton Tabakh, chief economist at Expert RA.

^^^ Should we expect a super cheap dollar ^^

“A dollar for 20, 40 or 48 rubles. you shouldn’t expect it and not many people expect these levels. Still, the demand for imports will not reset, so the currency will be needed in any case, ”says Karpunin. According to him, we can talk about the imminence of the completion of the ruble strengthening phase in general.

“If a medium-term currency is needed, for example for overseas shopping or travel, it seems comfortable to buy near current values. At the end of the year, with the recovery of imports and the decrease in market interest rates, the dollar-ruble exchange rate can easily return to the 75-80 side. Also, do not forget about the risk that oil and gas prices will fall and the supply of raw materials will decrease in absolute terms due to sanctions. This can affect the money supply from exporters. In addition, the Central Bank may continue to gradually ease the exchange control measures that will stop the strengthening trend of the ruble.

According to Syrovatkin, the basic scenario assumes that the dollar can move in a wide range of 83-100 rubles in the second half of the year.

The ruble strengthened again at the auction held on Friday, May 20. As of 12:00 Moscow time, the dollar fell to 58 rubles, the euro – to 59 rubles. The declining limit of the US currency, called “socialbites.ca” – 48 rubles, economist Tatyana Kulikova. Experts have previously stated that a strong ruble is not very beneficial for the Russian economy, which earns income in dollars and euros from oil and gas exports. But there is another opinion. Who needs a strong ruble – in the material of socialbites.ca.



Source: Gazeta

Popular

More from author

Greek Parliament did not support the vote of confidence in the current government 01:50

The Greek Parliament rejected the vote of confidence in the government headed by Kyriakos Mitsotakis. writes about this RIA News. The Greek opposition accused...

The share of financially unstable households increased in Russia 03/28/2024, 19:14

Since mid-2023, the share of Russians in a financially unstable situation has increased from 56.4% to 62.4%. writes about this RBC Referring...

The US administration allocated $60 million for initial expenses related to the bridge collapse 01:11

The United States Administration allocated $60 million to the State of Maryland for initial costs associated with the reconstruction of the Baltimore Bridge. ...