Next week, the dollar may reach 89-94 rubles, the euro 98-103 rubles, and the yuan 12.3-13 rubles. Such an estimate for Rossiyskaya Gazeta givenSovcombank Chief Analyst Mikhail Vasiliev.
In general, he explained that the ruble has been weakening almost continuously for the past seven months and more than a month. Vasiliev explained this by the fact that the demand for money is greater than its supply in the Russian market. The expert added that the capital outflow from Russia started to affect the rate more strongly.
Vasiliev reminded that in 2022 there is a record foreign exchange supply in the Russian market, so the capital outflow is not noticed, and the ruble exchange rate is strong and is 55-65 rubles. per dollar.
According to Vasiliev, the rapid weakening of the ruble is unprofitable for the Central Bank and the government: the public’s expectations of devaluation and inflation, and the costs of importers increase. Credit costs to the Council of Ministers and financial stability risks are also increasing.
The financier noted that the expectations to raise the key interest rate to 8% annually by at least 0.5 points on July 21 are growing, not excluding increases of 0.75 and even 1 point.
A possible increase in the rate was signaled by Central Bank Deputy Governor Alexei Zabotkin on June 28, explaining this with the need to return inflation to the 4% target. Central Bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina did not rule out such a scenario.
Previously it was It is named as an obvious consequence of raising the key rate.