The risks of the US economy going into recession are still high. Analysts estimate this probability as a record 44%, informs The American newspaper The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reports the results of its own poll.
This year, the WSJ has already done similar surveys. The results of the latter point to a sharp increase in the alarming mood of industry analysts. For example, in April, they estimated the risk of recession in the USA next year at 28%, and in January – around 18%, indicated in the material.
“economists <…> Now, it has sharply increased the probability of a recession reaching 44% in the next 12 months; this is a level that is usually only seen on the brink or during real recessions. <…> Prior to that, economists had estimated the average probability of the economy going into recession in the next 12 months at 28% in the magazine’s latest survey in April, and 18% in January.
In the note, it was stated that the main reasons for the increased risk of recession in the USA were the strong inflationary pressure and the tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve System (FRS) leadership.
On June 24, Janet Yellen, head of the U.S. Department of the Treasury (MoF), disagreed with economists and stated to reduce the risk of recession in the country. As arguments, he cited the stable state of the domestic labor market and the gradual decline in inflation.