Last week well The dollar hit a two-year low against the ruble. They gave about 66 rubles for American currency. The euro, another leading world currency, was also depreciating against the ruble. However, it has managed to regain some of its dollar and euro positions in recent days. As of May 10, the Central Bank gives 67.38 rubles for the dollar and 71.1 rubles for the euro.
The strengthening of the ruble against the world’s leading reserve currencies is explained by several factors. The reasons for this include restrictions on the export and purchase of American currency from Russia (no more than $ 10,000), the withdrawal of many Western companies and the general decline in dollar turnover in the country and the transfer of gas payments to rubles.
Under these circumstances, Russians with large sums of money are better off creating a diversified portfolio of dollars, euros, yuan and rubles. In an interview with socialbites.ca, financier Ivan Soldatov emphasized that they will protect themselves from sudden exchange rate fluctuations.
“I wouldn’t recommend selling the currency even if you have dollars or euros in stock for a long time. It’s like betting on “black” or “red” in a casino – too much risk in the face of general uncertainty. Therefore, if possible, carry with you a diversified portfolio of different currencies, including dollars, euros, yuan and rubles, ”says Soldatov.
keep your dollars with you
The financier added that the Russians should by no means give up their dollar savings completely. The US currency is still the leading reserve. For three years or more, dollar savings are sure to deliver additional benefits.
“About the dollar should still not be forgotten. There are many countries in the world that still support the American currency and cannot reject it.
Therefore, it was recommended to always buy and store dollars, both when they cost 35 rubles, and they give 80-90 rubles for it. The fixed dollar surcharge strategy still works,” Soldatov explained.
Evgeny Lashkov, Managing Director of the investment company ABC LLC, agreed with him. Currently, it’s almost impossible to sell American currency in Russia, so it’s worth stocking up until better times.
“Bought for swap You can hardly use dollars. You cannot withdraw more than 10 thousand. It is difficult to ship abroad. You cannot pay in many online stores. Visa and Mastercard cards do not work abroad. Thus a situation arose where the supply was very large, but there was almost no demand. And in these conditions, of course, the price of the commodity – the dollar – is falling,” he said.
On the one hand, Russian importers should have needed dollars: after all, they are one of the few who can buy it at the exchange rate and actually use it, paying for foreign goods. But there are also problems here.
“Our logistics chains are broken, the delivery of many goods to Russia is prohibited. Manufacturers and brand owners have left the country, and trucks and ships are virtually banned from transporting goods from other countries to Russia,” Lashkov summarized.
convert dollar to crypto
With current restrictions on the export of foreign currency from Russia, it is possible to save and even increase dollar savings by converting American currency to cryptodollars. Soldatov emphasized that the online currency can then be cashed abroad without any problems, for example in Thailand.
“If some Russians want to take a long trip to their resorts, all you need is to cash out the cryptocurrency. The ruble is far from liquid everywhere. For example, in the same Thailand it is very difficult to change rubles at exchange offices. If this is possible somewhere, then at a very negative rate. In this case, the dollar reserve on cryptocurrency exchanges is optimal, ”the financier explained.
In a diversified portfolio of currencies, it is now recommended to have a crypto analogue for dollars – cryptodollars (for example, USDT stablecoins). This method of recording accumulated foreign currency savings was used in particular by Soldatov himself.
“From my own experience, I will tell you that you can withdraw any amount from Russia to your own bank card via cryptocurrency in Thailand.
If I need to transfer 1 million dollars conditionally, I just take one million cryptodollars (USDT), fly to Thailand, open a bank account there, register on the exchange, pass verification and easily withdraw the currency in Thai baht. For moving to warm countries, this is an ideal option, ”said Soldatov.
What about the ruble?
Experts interviewed by socialbites.ca could not agree on the summer exchange rate of the ruble. Lashkov suggested that in the current realities, if the Central Bank and the government do not change their monetary policy drastically, the exchange rate may fall to 40 rubles per dollar. The investor argues that the interest rate may continue to fall further, but this will be temporary and then return to our normal values.
“The budget was prepared at the 72-74 ruble dollar rate according to the baseline scenario. The low dollar exchange rate is unfavorable for the government, as they sell energy resources in dollars, and the spending side (government workers, social programs, pensions) – in rubles. I think in the near future we will see some relief for exporters – for example, they will be allowed to earn more foreign currency and not sell almost their entire volume on the stock market as they are now. Or, as in the past, a relief for the free conversion of the dollar,” he said.
Soldatov described two options for the development of events related to the subsequent course. On the one hand, there is a forecast for further strengthening of the ruble up to 50 rubles per dollar. But the whole question is how long Russia will have enough internal reserves to artificially sustain such a route.
“In a negative scenario in the summer, the dollar may rise to 250 rubles. By June, the government and the Central Bank will have enough resources to rein in the ruble exchange rate, but then it can be allowed to float freely. A large number of rubles will be printed by that time, and a very strong depreciation of the currency may occur. Therefore, buying just one currency is an incredibly risky move,” Soldatov concluded.