The Central Bank of Russia (CB) may begin to gradually lower interest rates within six months. But that will happen when inflation drops to 4% and nothing will put pressure on the ruble rate. About this “Lente.ru” declaration Pavel Samiev, Managing Director of the analytical agency “BusinessDrom”.
“The Central Bank assumes that inflation will gradually come to 4 percent, respectively, and the key interest rate will fall. That’s the plan for next year. Accordingly, the cycle of rate cuts will begin in a little over six months.”
According to him, there will not be a sharp decrease immediately, but in general, a decrease of 1-2 points is quite possible. Also, in such a scenario, there should not be a sharp pressure on the ruble.
He added that such a scenario is most likely as there are currently no factors that will affect inflation or cause strong fluctuations in the foreign exchange market. At the same time, inflation may rise slightly in the fall, but since such changes will not be critical, the rate cut will be acceptable.
May 31 Central Bank Deputy Governor Alexey Zabotkin declarationThe Central Bank may consider increasing the neutral rate range from the current 5-6% after the July Board meeting.