If it fails to increase imports, the Russian economy could enter a period of overheating. This is specified bulletin Central Bank Research and Forecasting Department “What Trends Say”.
The head of the Central Bank, Elvira Nabiullina, had previously explained that the overheating of the economy was a result of the growing imbalance between supply and demand.
“…local goods and services supply dynamics lag behind domestic demand dynamics. If it is not possible to close this gap by increasing imports, the economy will enter a phase of overheating.
According to Bank of Russia analysts, the Russian economy is currently on a growth trajectory. They explained that the growth was due to the revival in consumer demand, increased private investment and the expansion of the production of goods under government orders. Against this background, there is an increase in competition for production, labor and financial resources. According to the document, unemployment remains at a record low, corporate loans are growing. Analysts said seasonally adjusted GDP growth in the January-March period was 0.6% compared to October-December 2022. Analysts expect the same dynamics in April-June.
The opinion of the Chamber may not coincide with the official position of the regulator.
On December 30, 2021, the head of the monetary policy department of the Central Bank, Kirill Tremasov, drew attention to the shortage of personnel in the local labor market and talked about the risks of overheating the Russian economy. On February 11, 2022, Nabiullina described high inflation and the situation in the labor market as signs of an overheating economy. If you don’t respond to these factors, Russia can expect a recession, she said.