The European Union is trying to remove Russian gas from the world market, but so far it has not been very effective. This opinion was expressed by a senior researcher at the Faculty of Economics of MV Moscow State University in his column in Infotek. Lomonosov, Candidate of Economic Sciences Alexander Kudrin.
“The RePower AB plan, launched on May 18, 2022, has been accepted. He noted that in 2021, 155 billion cubic meters were purchased in Russia. m gas (both in the form of pipeline gas and LNG) provided around 45% of imports and around 40% of EU-27 consumption. This volume would be abandoned by 2030 in the future,” said Kudrin.
He added that the most important part of this idea is to reduce the demand for Russian gas by 101.5 billion cubic meters. m was promised to be done within a year.
“It was this discount that should have been the most painful shock for Russian suppliers. “However, doubts have arisen about the reliability of this threat due to the lack of reliable enforcement mechanisms.”
According to the expert, the Oxford Institute for Energy Research expressed doubts about the prospects of such a reduction.
“The authors were very skeptical about the possibility of increasing their LNG purchases by 50 billion cubic meters. 30 billion cubic meters of increase in m.LNG imports. m looked more realistic. The authors also believed that another 10 billion cubic meters would be found. m pipeline gas is quite possible,” said Kudrin.
The expert noted that the biggest surprise of the past heating season (October 2022 to March 2023) was the sharp decline in gas consumption in Europe.
“According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), in fact, consumption in OECD member European countries decreased by 16%, or 55 billion cubic meters, in the last heating season. m About 20 billion cubic meters. m gas saving was provided by the industry, while the estimates did not take this saving item seriously. Households saved another 25 billion cubic meters,” said Kudrin.
The expert emphasized that in terms of expanding LNG purchases, the EU generally follows the program of the European authorities: in 2022, its members increased their LNG imports by 55 billion cubic meters at once. m, despite the skepticism of the IEA and experts from Oxford, this far exceeded the growth in world supply.
“Given the increase in global LNG supply, it seems possible to continue the same import activity in the future. True, as already mentioned, about 5 billion cubic meters. Million m of this increase in 2022 came from Russian suppliers,” Kudrin concluded.