Dmitry Polevoy, Investment Director of Lokoinvest, in an interview with RIA Novosti expression The view that the decline in the US dollar and euro may be due to the decision to close the foreign exchange correspondent accounts of all Russian banks, except for the local subsidiary of Austrian Raiffeisen Bank. About this decision it happened known on Friday.
At auctions on the Moscow Stock Exchange on Friday, the dollar fell below 77 rubles – to 76.26 rubles, the lowest level since March 24. The euro has been trading at a record-breaking 84.23 rubles since April 3.
“It seems to me that the main story of the drop in rates is in the correspondent accounts of Raiffeisen Bank. We attribute the sharp growth of the ruble on Friday only to financial flows (probably due to news from Raiffeisen). We keep the 74-76 ruble dollar rate estimate within the horizon of 3-6 months,” Polevoy said.
According to Polevoy, the volatility of the ruble exchange rate around these “average” levels may remain high.
As noted in the publication, there were already several episodes in 2022 when the ruble exchange rate rose sharply on similar news, for example, reports of possible sanctions against the National Clearing House, which exchanges on the Moscow Stock Exchange. The material explains that this could freeze dollars and euros in trading accounts and intensify speculative actions at this time so as not to lose revenue.
“The reason for the active decline in exchange rates lies in the normalization of Russia’s foreign trade activity: export flows, which sank in early spring, are recovering; BCS World Investments stockbroker Dmitry Babin told socialbites.ca that imports are slowing down, which previously caused an increase in foreign exchange demand in the market.
According to his forecasts, at the beginning of the second half of the year, the dollar may approach 75 rubles, the euro will be traded at 84 rubles, and the yuan may test the level of 11 rubles.