What does Ukraine offer?
As part of strengthening anti-Russian sanctions, Kiev has proposed banning any gas supplies from the Russian Federation to Europe, bypassing the Ukrainian gas transport system. The corresponding initiative was published on the website of President Volodymyr Zelensky’s office.
“We propose sanctions that would lead to the suspension of all Russian-controlled pipeline routes now capable of transporting Russian natural gas to the European market, except for flows sent through the Ukrainian gas transport system,” the document said. says.
The proposal was developed by an international working group of Andriy Yermak, head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, and Michael McFaul, the former US Ambassador to Russia.
Yermak-McFaul Commission emphasized that if the proposal is accepted, “the use of Turkish Stream will come to an end”. He also called on Japan and South Korea, which have been limiting the purchase of Russia’s energy resources since last year, to abandon them altogether. In addition, Kiev proposes to ban the export of Russian liquefied gas.
what does this mean
By March 2022, gas from Russia to Europe had passed through five lines. Directly at the bottom of the Baltic Sea via the Nord Stream to Germany, via Belarus along the Yamal-Europe route to Poland and then to Germany. Fuel went to Slovakia through the Ukrainian gas transport system (GTS). There are also two pipelines passing through Turkey – Blue Stream and Turkish Stream. The gas supplied from these went to Southern and Southeastern European countries in transit.
Yamal-Europe stopped pumping gas in March last year after the first packages of sanctions from the West. Nord Stream stopped working after the terrorist attack in September 2022.
In fact, Ukraine’s GTS remained the only operating route for the direct transport of fuel to Central and Western Europe. Turkish lines also work, but logistically less profitable because the same fuel has to pass through several countries to supply gas to Germany.
Now Kiev is proposing to stop using Turkish Stream and Blue Stream, for the passage of which Ankara is paid. Further distribution of the gas flowing through these lines is critical for Hungary, Bulgaria, Serbia, Romania and other EU countries.
The capacity of Ukraine’s GTS at the point of departure to European countries is 146 billion cubic meters of gas per year. The total capacity of Turkish Stream and Blue Stream is approximately 47 billion cubic meters per year. The Yamal-Europe and Nord Stream gas pipelines, which stopped pumping, had a total annual gas production capacity of 88 billion cubic meters.
Why does Kiev need these restrictions?
This is not the first time that Kiev has attempted to ban gas supply via any line other than the Ukrainian GTS. Moreover, the first such calls were made even before special operations began, after the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the first wave of anti-Russian sanctions. When Western countries imposed new restrictions on Russia’s energy imports last year, Ukrainian authorities also offered to cut gas supplies to the EU altogether, making an exception for their GTS only.
As experts note, such initiatives from Kiev pursue several goals at once. The first is financial. Ukraine, which remains the only transit country for Russian gas to Europe, will create a de facto monopoly and be able to dictate its terms to both Moscow and Brussels.
Secondly, Ukraine’s GTS will become a guarantee of security for the country in case of any other escalation of the conflict. Kiev hopes that if its proposal is accepted, the only available gas transit route will halt the advance of Russian troops and prevent attacks on its territory. That is, it will be a lever of political pressure.
At the same time, in 2022, European media reported that Ukraine’s calls to block Turkish Stream and Blue Stream were rejected by Ankara, as well as several EU members – Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary. And it wasn’t just that these countries were deprived of logistically cheaper gas supplies. But in the fact that they will also lose the money they received to transport the fuel to European countries.
The US involvement in the development of such sanctions may indicate that Washington is trying even harder to deprive Europe of cheap Russian pipeline gas. And so it forces EU members to buy American LNG at higher prices.