Central Bank Vice-President Alexei Zabotkin said the current weakening of the ruble against foreign currencies was due to Russia’s passing the low point of export earnings. He noted that the more dynamics of the exchange rate will be softer.
“Export revenues will start to pick up after crossing some low points in February with oil caps”
Zabotkin pointed.
At a meeting of the working group on the preparation of the 2022 annual report of the Bank of Russia for consideration by the State Duma, it was noted that revenue follows the volume and price of sales with a delay – payment does not occur immediately, but up to three months after shipment of goods.
The current flow of export earnings reflects the situation in prices and export volumes, primarily oil and gas, in late December – early January. Zabotkin also recalled the steady growth in imports in connection with the restoration of production chains.
The minimum value of the dollar in 2023 was 67.1 rubles, at the auction on the Moscow Stock Exchange on January 13, its maximum value was recorded on April 7 at 83.5 rubles. In the trading week from April 3-7, the dollar rose 3.53 rubles. The euro exceeded 90 rubles last week. European and US currencies showed their highest values since April 2022.
On April 6, Finance Minister Anton Siluanov attributed the fall of the ruble to foreign exchange inflows and outflows in Russia.
“The changes are either related to an increase in imports or a decrease in export earnings. The trend has been in both one direction and the other in recent months. <…> Our exchange rate depends on market principles, it is definitely fluctuating under changing external economic conditions” – declaration he is a journalist Pavel Zarubin.
Answering the question of what values the indicators can reach, the minister said that the Central Bank does not set any limits at the moment. According to him, the prices of Russian energy carriers have increased recently, which means that more foreign currency will flow into the country and “the ruble exchange rate will tend to strengthen.”
Shell and almost 100 billion rubles
April 4 “Kommersant” knowledgeable It was based on the sources that the Russian company NOVATEK received the approval of Russian President Vladimir Putin in order to receive the entire 94.8 billion rubles for Shell’s share in the Sakhalin-2 project and to withdraw this money from Russia. The publication noted that the Russian authorities, suspecting that Shell damaged the project, will inspect Sakhalin-2 and plan to reduce the payment amount according to the amount of damage. However, according to NOVATEK, the identified damage is being offset by dividends that Shell did not fully receive from its participation in Sakhalin-2 for 2021.
Sakhalin-2 is a project for the development of the Piltun-Astokhskoye and Lunskoye fields on the Sakhalin shelf and has been implemented since 1994 under a production sharing agreement. Initially, the shareholders of the project were Gazprom (50%)), Japanese companies Mitsui (12.5%) and Mitsubishi (10%) and Shell (27.5%). The net profit of the operator of the Sakhalin Energy project in 2022 amounted to $ 4 billion, revenue – $ 9.6 billion.
Bloomberg attributed the sale of Shell’s shares to the weakening of the ruble. In the agency’s article there is no evidence of a connection between the ruble exchange rate and changes in the Sakhalin-2 project.
The Kremlin and Shell did not comment on a possible deal. “We never comment on business correspondence,” said Dmitry Peskov, Press Secretary of the President of the Russian Federation.
April 10, Deputy Minister of Finance of the Russian Federation Alexei Moiseev aforementioned It should not have led to the observed jump in rate in the State Duma, which was acting as Shell’s exit from Russian assets. According to him, the government commission imposes severe restrictions on the foreign exchange rate of companies. “If someone violates these restrictions, it is likely that the Bank of Russia will be able to see it and comment. There will be a reaction,” he said.
“To be honest, I have some doubts about this logic (the effect of the Shell deal on the ruble exchange rate – approx socialbites.ca),” Moiseev said.
Central Bank Vice-President Zabotkin shares the same view: “The emphasis of commentators on this fact is probably overstated.”