A very rapid and strong weakening of the ruble accelerates inflation, and a strengthening of the dollar above 80 rubles will not harm the Russian economy. About this agency “Prime” declaration Sovcombank Chief Analyst Mikhail Vasiliev.
“It is not the level of the national exchange rate that is causing great damage to the economy, but its increased volatility, as it does not allow businesses, government and citizens to effectively plan economic activities,” Vasilyev said.
According to him, the weakening of the ruble may accelerate inflation in the country. Thus, the dollar has appreciated 14% since the beginning of the year, while consumer prices have increased by only 1.6%. Therefore, importers are likely to start shifting the cost increase to consumer goods.
He added that in the base scenario, inflation will exceed the target level in the summer months and reach 7.5 percent at the end of the year. All this could be due to the weakening of the ruble, economic difficulties and budget deficits.
Earlier on Sunday, investment strategist Sergey Suverov at Arikapital declarationDecisions by a number of OPEC+ countries, including Russia and Saudi Arabia, to reduce their daily oil output by the end of this year, could stabilize the ruble despite the recent sharp depreciation of the Russian currency against world accounts. moon.