The decline in Russia’s 2023 GDP may only be 1-1.5%, contrary to the previous estimate of 2.8%. In this respect reported In the report of the experts of the ACRA credit rating agency.
On Wednesday, the ACRA released its updated key macroeconomic forecast and alternative scenarios for 2023-2025. According to the base situation, the decrease in Russia’s 2023 GDP will be at the level of 1-1.5%. Already in 2024 an increase of 0.8-1.8% is predicted, and in 2025 – 0.4-1.6%.
“We expect real GDP to decline during the year, despite the improvement in several key assumptions, including the impact of foreign trade and budget spending,” said Dmitry Kulikov, director and senior director of the Sovereign and Regional Rating Group. , the head of the group is Elena Anisimova.
According to experts, a number of factors affect the downturn in the economy, notably the decrease in production and processing in the oil and gas sector and the decrease in budget plans. At the same time, there is a certain growth in investments, a positive effect of import substitution and a growth potential in consumption. Experts also predicted two more possible scenarios: pessimistic and optimistic. In the first case, the decline in the Russian economy this year will be 2.4-3.2 percent, and the growth will be 0.6-1.4 percent in the second forecast.
On March 16, Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov in his speech at the Congress of the Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs of Russia declarationThe Ministry of Economic Development has improved the real income estimate of the population and expects an increase in GDP and investment in Russia in 2023. According to him, at the end of last year it became clear that the Russian economy will develop more dynamically than previously thought.