The Central Bank predicted a structural liquidity surplus of 2.8-3.4 trillion rubles by the end of 2023 for Russian banks. Forecast includes published on Monday report Central Bank monetary policy for February 2023.
Structural excess liquidity occurs when banks take more money into correspondent accounts than they need to reconcile customers and meet regulatory reserve requirements.
“Structural excess liquidity forecast at the end of 2023 is estimated at between 2.8 and 3.4 trillion rubles…. The report says that for 2023, excess liquidity will change slightly.
According to the results of 2022, the structural liquidity surplus of Russian banks amounted to 2.8 trillion rubles. In January 2023, the figure was at the level of 3.2 trillion rubles.
According to the regulator, as part of the Ministry of Finance’s resumption of activities under the fiscal rule this year, the sale of yuan and investment of funds from the National Welfare Fund will provide liquidity to banks.
In addition, the Central Bank foresees an increase in the volume of cash in circulation in the range of 0.6-0.8 trillion rubles at the end of the year. According to the results of 2022, this figure amounted to 14.6 trillion rubles.
In its overestimate, the regulator also took into account the previously announced increase in required reserve ratios for banks on March 1 and June 1 of this year. As a result, the volume of required reserves averaged in correspondent accounts of banks will increase by 1 trillion and 0.9 trillion rubles, respectively, compared to January. Therefore, taking into account the projected growth rate of the money supply, by the end of the year the balances in the correspondent accounts of banks will increase by 1.4-1.6 trillion rubles compared to January 1 this year.
The Central Bank summarized, “Therefore, the excess liquidity in 2023 will change a little.”
As socialbites.ca previously reported, Russian banks were first introduced in April 2022. passed It gave a structural liquidity surplus of 280.4 billion rubles for the first time since February 24 last year. On February 24, this figure was 113.1 billion rubles. For the next five weeks, the banking sector ran a structural deficit.
And banks in the Russian Federation until September 14, 2022 augmented structural surplus of liquidity of about 3.66 trillion rubles. This is the highest figure since August 2021.