Vladislav Serov, investment adviser of Otkritie Investments, said that in 2023 the average exchange rate of the Russian currency could be about 63 rubles per dollar, the agency reported. “Hitting the Primer”.
As he noted, lower demand for the currency and the global weakening of the dollar will support the ruble, as inflation in the US seems to have passed its peak, due to restrictions on capital movements and sanctions risks. The United States Federal Reserve System (FRS) will not pursue an aggressive rate policy.
According to the expert, the market is currently waiting for the Fed to start a rate cut in the fourth quarter of this year. But “there is not yet sufficient ground to rely on such a step,” he said.
At the same time, according to Serov, if the American economy avoids a serious recession and China manages to ignite economic expansion, then China’s demand for raw materials will be able to support global inflation. In this scenario, the Fed will continue to keep interest rates at their peak until the end of this year.
The investment adviser also warned that the ruble could fall to 76 per dollar if Russian exports fall sharply.
“A greater weakening is unlikely because even then exports are likely to surpass imports,” he said.
Previously, in the “Overview of the risks of financial markets” prepared by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation on January 19 reportedIt was stated that the main reasons for the depreciation of the Russian Ruble in December 2022 were the limited foreign exchange sales of exporters and the increasing demand of the population. At the same time, the decline in the revenues of Russia’s 29 largest exporting companies was effective in the decrease in foreign exchange sales.
Source: Gazeta
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