According to the newspaper’s quarterly survey, even though inflation in the US is falling, American economists believe that rising interest rates will lead to a recession in the country’s economy in 2023. The Wall Street Gazette.
71 economists participated in this WSJ study, which was held January 6-10. On average, they estimate the probability of a recession to be 61%. In October, this figure was 63%.
The publication also writes that the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) will not be able to “soft landing” this year – a policy in which inflation slows, but the number of jobs is not cut down too much so as not to cause a provocation. recession. Three-quarters of those surveyed think so.
As Deutsche Bank economists Brett Ryan and Matthew Luzzetti put it, the Fed “still has a long way to go.” In their view, the regulator will maintain a tough policy “to restore labor market stability and price stability”. According to Ryan and Luzzetti, this will lead to a sharp rise in unemployment and recession.
According to the economists surveyed, GDP growth in the US in the first quarter of 2023 will be 0.1% on an annual basis. In the second quarter, the figure will decrease by 0.4%. There will be no GDP growth in the third quarter. In the fourth, it will grow by 0.6%. The World Bank expects the country’s GDP to increase by 0.5% this year.
Kristalina Georgieva, former Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) gave an opinionThe US has a chance to avoid a recession in 2023.