The start of 2023 comes with a host of positive developments for the global economy, including relatively warm weather in Europe at the height of the winter heating season, a resumption of production in China after prolonged curfews, and a steady decline in inflation in the US. . However, the world is not yet completely free from the risk of a large-scale recession by the end of this year. informs Bloomberg agency.
“Many factors, including the reopening of the Chinese economy, a warmer-than-ever winter in energy-hungry Europe, and the steady decline in US inflation, are taking some of the pessimism that gripped financial markets at the end of 2022. . The global economy is starting the new year more optimistically, but that doesn’t guarantee that 2023 will end this way.
In particular, the continued policy of the world’s leading central banks to further raise key interest rates may be a reason for continued recession risks. The note states that another factor may be unstable inflationary dynamics.
“While the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and some other countries are still pushing for higher interest rates, the risk of a sharp decline later in the year cannot be excluded, especially if inflation becomes unsustainable and does not continue. It can be withdrawn as much as the central banks want.”, – is included in the article.
13 January International Monetary Fund (IMF) Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva statedThe US has a chance to avoid a recession in 2023. He explained that despite rising interest rates, the strong labor market and strong consumer demand in the US gave hope to avoid a recession.