Belousov believes that if there are no extraordinary events in 2023, it will be easier for the Russian economy than 2022.
“We believe that if nothing happens, 2023 will naturally be much easier than 2022: we don’t see a fatal problem there,” he said.
The Deputy Prime Minister told reporters on the sidelines of the APEC summit.
According to him, a sharp growth in the Russian economy should not be expected – “next year we will be 3% [роста ВВП] We cannot show it, it will likely be lower.”
“We’re pretty stable this year, going somewhere around minus 3%, minus 2.9%, minus 2.8%. We believe we can cover a 1% drop next year,” he said.
He also suggested that in 2023, inflation in the Russian Federation will be below the projected 5.5%.
“Our forecast for the next year is probably around 5-6%, 5.5%. I think it will likely be lower. The Central Bank of Russia is monitoring this situation. And I think there are signs that economic growth is not being met as the deflationary situation continues. Probably [ЦБ] will go to soften the policy even more,” Belousov said.
Initially, the Bank of Russia predicted a collapse of the Russian economy by 8-9%, the Ministry of Economic Development – 7.8%, after the introduction of the first packages of Western sanctions in connection with the conduct of a special operation in Ukraine. %. The Central Bank also predicts 5-7% inflation for 2023. A return to 4% is expected in 2024-2025.
The system may “break down”
According to Belousov, the authorities have enough leverage to solve the problems facing the Russian economy, so there is no need to mobilize the financial system and other institutions.
“Therefore, there is no point in creating a mobilization economy now, it will not work. We have a fair amount of reserves and leverage that we can use to solve the tasks set by the president and life itself. It exists both in the state and in the country,” he said.
But the Deputy Prime Minister admitted he was concerned about the possible loss of controllability of the economy when the system could “fall apart”.
“We were able to regain control…
There were two serious points: March, especially the beginning of March, and the second point – approximately the end of April-June, this range. There is a certain limit to the resource of manageability of any system, after which the processes start only when the system begins to act reactively, and if the chaos processes continue to grow, the system can get out of control. “There was a moment in March that felt like we were moving in that direction.”
said Belousov.
He explained that when the Russians began to withdraw large amounts of cash, including foreign currency, the biggest fears were related to trade and reactive demand. Then, according to him, problems with logistics started within the country.
“At that time, the Ministry of Transport, the headquarters of the Ministry of Transport, worked around the clock manually routing logistics flows to individual ships and trucks. The Ministry of Industry and Trade also worked in the same way, working together with trade. The Central Bank of Russia worked in the same mode,” he said.
Strong rubles and salaries
According to Belousov, the Russian Cabinet is concerned about the slow recovery in real wage growth, and this issue will also need to be addressed next year. “This is the flip side of low unemployment,” Belousov said. Also, according to the first deputy prime minister, consumer demand decreased – “almost reduced”, due to the decline in the level of consumer loans.
Commenting on the situation with exchange rate volatility, he noted that “the strong ruble has already played its role” and noted that at this stage the Russian economy is more profitable in the region of 70-80 rubles per dollar, because “this affects”. investments.”
The depreciation of the ruble against the dollar and the euro started in December and intensified in the middle of the month. Between 12 and 16 December, the ruble fell from 62.8 to 64.65 against the dollar and from 66.37 to 69.1 against the euro. Since December 19, the decline has accelerated – the dollar was traded at 65 and 67 rubles. Already on the 21st, the dollar costs 70 rubles, and the euro – 75. Until December 26, the rate is set at 68 rubles. per dollar and 72 rubles. for the euro. December 27 – 70 and 75 rubles, respectively.
Withdrawal and lending
Belousov said that “the riskiest type of investment in existence right now” is withdrawing money from Russia, and the business community understands this. He noted that the retaliatory restrictions on Western sanctions are counterproductive, as they will adversely affect business opportunities that require “certain maneuvers and resources”.
Belousov emphasized that he recently met with the Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs of Russia, and the representatives of the RSPP expressed a unanimous position – the business community wants investment vehicles in Russia.
The Deputy Prime Minister also noted a sharp decline in the level of corporate credit, The decline in exports reached nearly 30%.
“This, of course, exceeds all ideas about our stagnation. This suggests that banks as a system have not yet started lending to businesses. Separate signs, separate directions, breakthroughs, etc. But overall this system hasn’t worked yet,” Belousov said.