The “collapse” has begun
“One of the main risks today is the ‘pull-off’ of the economy due to logistical restrictions on the one hand, and the lack of liquidity in the economy on the other. Survey data of heads of backbone businesses shows that this decline has unfortunately already begun. Although so far it has practically not affected the labor market, ”Interfax quotes Belousov, speaking at the Federation Council.
The First Deputy Prime Minister added that in industry and commerce, “the decrease in production is about 11%, in other sectors – 9-10%”.
“The idea of our geopolitical rivals is to isolate Russia as much as possible from the world economy. It literally pulls it out of world economic relations, initiating processes of deterioration and disintegration of our economic system. In fact, an attempt was made to organize a global blockade of Russia, schematically consisting of four rings, ”says Belousov.
According to him, a financial, commercial, transport and humanitarian blockade of the four rings.
soft loans
The First Deputy Prime Minister said that the government has set the level of support for the Russian economy through soft loans without increasing the pressure on inflation by 7-8 trillion rubles.
He noted that the flow of funds to the economy was accelerated “through the state budget” to support the economy. For example, 11% preferential loans are provided to industrial and commercial enterprises. A similar program was started for backbone organizations in agriculture, and 10% preferential loan was provided to them.
“It was decided to provide soft loans of up to 158 billion rubles to agricultural enterprises for spring fieldwork. It is planned to increase this volume by another 60 billion rubles.
He said that companies in the IT sector will be provided with low-rate loans of no more than 3 percent for the implementation of new projects and the development of new products, as well as 11 percent for existing activities. .
“There is a great demand for support for backbone businesses and medium-sized companies. We have certain macroeconomic limits in which we operate. We have now roughly groped for the constraints we can work with without increasing the pressure on inflation. In total, talking about loans, about lending to the economy through all channels, is somewhere around 7-8 trillion rubles. This is the attitude of the government, the Ministry of Economic Development,” he said.
decline in GDP
According to Rosstat, industrial production in Russia in February 2022 grew up After an 8.6% increase in January, it increased by 6.3% compared to February of last year. In the January-February period of this year, the sector grew by 7.5%.
The day before, the head of the Accounts Chamber of Russia, Alexei Kudrin, speaking at the Federation Council with a report on the ministry’s work for 2021, said that a 10% reduction in Russia’s GDP is expected.
“Now the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economic Development are assessing the decline in GDP this year. Of course it will decrease. According to the official estimate, there will be a drop of more than 10%,” he said.
According to him, the decline in GDP will affect budget revenues and law enforcement, but he was promised to provide the necessary assistance to the regions. The Ministry of Finance is currently working on an expenditure reallocation that will require additional monitoring.
On Monday, the head of the Central Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, also announced an “inevitable” decline in GDP. He noted that in 2022, the financial regulator will pursue a policy to protect the economy and the financial system, citizens’ incomes and savings from harsh sanctions from Western countries, “use all necessary means to minimize risks to financial and price stability.”
“The complex process of adapting to new conditions will inevitably lead to a decrease in GDP, but the Russian economy will be able to return to a growth trajectory, improve production, create new jobs and increase domestic investment. “Financial stability and predictably falling inflation are key conditions for this, and the Central Bank of Russia will do everything necessary to ensure these,” he said.