reduce by 8-10%
“Now the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Economic Development are assessing the decline in GDP this year. Of course it will decrease. According to the official estimate, there will be a drop of more than 10%,” he said.
According to him, the decline in GDP will affect budget revenues and law enforcement, but he was promised to provide the necessary assistance to the regions. The head of the Accounts Chamber stressed that the Ministry of Finance is already working on the redistribution of costs, which will require additional monitoring.
Later, Kudrin noted that he could not make any predictions for the government and that various official authorities had estimated a ten percent recession in the economy for this year.
“There are lowers and higher: a little or ten percent or a little more to about eight percent decline. <…> And for experts, of course, there are higher scores, ”said the head of the Accounts Chamber.
The inevitable fall in GDP
A day ago, the Central Bank of Russia announced that it has sent its annual report for 2021 to the State Duma. public Appeal from Elvira Nabiullina, head of financial regulator, who explained the inevitable fall in GDP.
“Since 2014, the Central Bank of Russia has continually increased and diversified its gold and foreign exchange reserves in order to actually have two cushions of safety: in a financial crisis, when the need for the US dollar and euro is high, and in a geopolitical crisis, Russia Most of them have access to the reserve currency. And now, after the freezing of reserves of Western countries in their own currency, Russia continues to have a sufficient amount of reserves in gold and yuan, ”the statement said.
According to him, in conditions of limited access to the US dollar and euro, measures were taken to contain the capital movement in order to curb the risks to financial stability. In addition, the Central Bank of Russia has also continuously improved its national payment infrastructure.
The head of the financial regulator added that in 2022 the Bank of Russia will pursue a policy to protect the economy and financial system, the income and savings of citizens from harsh sanctions, “use all necessary means to minimize risks to financial and price stability. ”
“The complex process of adapting to new conditions will inevitably lead to a decrease in GDP, but the Russian economy will be able to return to a growth trajectory, improve production, create new jobs and increase domestic investment. “Financial stability and predictably falling inflation are key conditions for this, and the Central Bank of Russia will do everything necessary to ensure these,” he said.
World Bank Forecast
World Bank on Sunday public your updated estimate. According to him, the Russian economy, which is “affected by the unprecedented sanctions” of Western countries, will shrink by 11.2% in 2022.
The World Bank also expects Ukraine’s GDP to decline by 45.1% this year due to ongoing hostilities in the country.
“At the same time, we believe that the scale of the reduction will depend on the duration and intensity of hostilities,” the document says.
Overall, the total GDP of European and Central Asian countries will decrease by 4.1% this year, as predicted by the financial institution.
After the start of the military special operation of the Russian Federation in Ukraine, Western countries adopted a number of anti-Russian sanctions. Many Russian politicians, including the country’s leadership, businessmen, banks and companies were also subject to restrictions. In addition, many foreign companies suspended their work in the Russian Federation. At the same time, Russian President Vladimir Putin noted that the policy of containing and weakening Russia is a long-term strategy of the West and that the sanctions have dealt a serious blow to the entire global economy.