One of the consequences of the start of military special operations in Ukraine and almost all the sanctions against Russia was the increase in the price of many goods on the market. On February 25, many retail chains started raising prices as the ruble depreciated against the dollar and euro. For example, DNS electronics store announced a 30% price increase. Many experts reported that the decision was speculative. The management of the network was then summoned to the FAS. But the price tags in stores continued to rise – this applies to both food and basic necessities.
But now he took the ruble well to strengthen – its value against US and European currencies has been increasing for several days in a row. At 15.00 Moscow time, the dollar was trading at 83.6 rubles. At the height of the decline, the Russian currency fell to 120 against the dollar. However, prices in stores are in no hurry to drop.
Why prices do not fall – the opinion of economists
In an interview with socialbites.ca, Georgy Ostapkovich, director of the Center for Market Research at the HSE Institute for Statistical Studies and Information Economics, said that the dollar’s depreciation against the ruble is in itself a positive signal. According to him, the value of the ruble is affected by the negotiation process between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the decision of the Russian authorities to transfer gas payments to the ruble.
Ostapkovich said the dollar’s depreciation could play some positive role, but prices would still rise. There is a lot of economic uncertainty right now. No one understands how the situation will develop, what will be the deliveries, how the payments will be made. The expert emphasized that the depreciation of the dollar has not yet played any fundamental role in pricing.
According to Andrey Loboda, BitRiver’s foreign affairs manager, there is currently no serious reason to cut prices in retail. He told socialbites.ca that inflation has set a record and food prices will rise by 12-15% in the first quarter “in the best case”. A possible positive effect on prices in this period can only be mentioned as “very cautiously”.
However, he added that retail pricing is a very “opaque subject” and that price increases for the same product may change “several times”.
Still, Loboda believes there are reasons to expect monetary policy progress and a transition to an “era of the strong ruble.” According to him, if the change in the ruble exchange rate in a year is plus or minus 2.5-3%, and citizens and investors use the Russian currency as a means of savings (especially in the case of the success of digital currency). ruble), all this will put more pressure on retail prices.
Is there hope?
Eldar Murtazin, a leading analyst at Mobile Research Group, told socialbites.ca that prices for household appliances and electronics could fall in the near future. According to him, the trend started even before the strengthening of the ruble. The fact is that “protective” prices were set for the main part of the equipment: growth can be “from 30 to 300%”. There were two options here: if someone really needed the product right now, they would still buy it, otherwise people wouldn’t buy it. Sales eventually fell.
“And this week is evident, as retail prices are lowering on a daily basis. Little by little, but all retail prices are being reviewed,” he said.
The course, although still “artificially determined”, is now starting to come back more or less. According to the expert, there is no longer a big problem for importers here, they can already import goods regardless of currency fluctuations. Eldar Murtazin says that there is a shortage of some goods, but this can be resolved.
Logistics will improve gradually, but will not “immediately affect prices on the shelves”. Some, for example, bought goods at the rate of 120-130 rubles. And they need to sell this product. Now there is a very wide price range: someone conditionally sells goods for 80 rubles, and someone for 150 rubles. But if the situation is more or less stable, Murtazin believes that all this will come to naught by mid-May.
“Most likely, the tension in the market will continue, but the prices will look like this: exchange + 5-10% is included in the cost of goods from above. So, it will be more or less comfortable for everyone, including buyers. And I think the market will start to revive,” he said.
Major retailers confirmed to socialbites.ca that prices have changed. Citilink’s press service said that last week, against the backdrop of the exchange rate, they had reduced prices by up to 20% on more than 2,000 laptop models. Suitable for video cards, computers, monoblocks, tablets, etc. costs were also reviewed. The press service added that the January-February prices for a “significant” part of the goods are now back with direct discounts, and for some goods the prices are not increased at all.
Blueberries also note a reduction in the cost of goods. Sellers discounted 30% on select laptop models, 40% off monitors, 24% off MFPs, 30% off system units and monoblocks, and 20% off smartphones (including iPhone 13). Some household appliances are also getting cheaper: stoves – 22%, washing machines – 20%, refrigerators – 15%. In addition, the cost of some TV models was reduced by 30%. Paper prices for office equipment have dropped as much as 30% in some cases.
How will prices be affected by shortages and logistical issues?
The main question now is what the demand for goods will be and whether there will be a shortage, says Ostapkovich of the Higher School of Economics. If there are enough products on the market, there will be no reason to raise prices. But if a product is short of supply, its value will increase.
Some products may need to be purchased from third countries: for example, to bring “iPhone” from Kazakhstan due to sanctions. Ostapkovich, some goods will have to be imported from other states if the conditional Morocco decides to no longer supply us with tangerines and Ecuador – bananas.
“It will cost. But because of these “shoulders” they will be more expensive and scarce. For example, cars will not be lost – they will be driven here and sold at twice the price, as in the early days of Russia or the USSR, ”she explained.
Suppliers will have to find new plans, logistical routes that will lead to higher prices. At the same time, even now there are problems with logistics: transportation is expensive, delivery times are increasing. Murtazin said that, first of all, bulky items such as refrigerators, washing machines, stoves are damaged by equipment. And these are goods that are needed by people who must first look for an apartment. They will be bought even at a high price.
“Therefore, the shortage of these goods will be resolved later than others. I think it will be the second half of summer – the beginning of August, maybe the end of it. “The brands will change, but it will still be resolved and prices will return to normal,” he said.