What’s in store for the oil market – expert forecast

The rising cost of motor oils makes motorists nervous. Limited supplies and uncertainties about tomorrow’s supply are forcing some sellers to wait until competitors run out of oil to sell theirs at even higher prices.

For example, our friendly service, which specializes in the maintenance and repair of German cars, recently had to buy a barrel of oil mobile1 (208 liters) not for 200 thousand rubles, as before, but for a million (4.8 thousand rubles per 1 liter). Butter Total in another friendly service they now buy at a price of 147 thousand rubles per barrel, and not for 83 thousand, as before.

One of our readers complained about the high cost of changing the oil: to turn it into a VW Touareg box, I had to pay 150,000 rubles.

We also know that the sourcing of oils from wholesalers and suppliers has started. Also overdue, which will go on sale sooner or later. Where is hard to say.

To understand what is happening in the oil market and what to expect in the near future, we turned to an expert.

Oleg Zemtsov, Director of the Handelshuis “Behind the wheel”:

“Virtually everyone who had oil stopped shipping it. The reason is an absolute misunderstanding about the cost of the product and the prospects for the appearance of oils on the Russian market in the future.

Since February 24, the cost of oils has risen from 80% (with the most modest sellers, such as Koreans and especially, ZIC) up to 180% on unique European oils. Even our Russian producers are currently facing a shortage. Because the additives that go into oils are mostly European. Accordingly, our domestic oils will increase in price.

The situation at the moment (from yesterday or the day before yesterday): the Europeans declare that they will not import oils, the Koreans (ZICfor example) opened sales yesterday, but was pegged to the dollar (payment at the Central Bank rate today).

What are we waiting for in the next two or three months? The market is being rebuilt. Most brands will leave altogether, while the rest will redistribute and shrink their lines. And certainly we will see a price increase in addition to the increase that has already taken place. Where else is the raise? Domestic oils will have to switch to Chinese or Korean additives (it would be better if they were Korean). That is, they will buy for dollars, plus the logistical leverage will increase. Like it or not, raw materials become more expensive and therefore the product more expensive.

European oils will seep into the Russian market, but their price will increase many times over as they cannot be imported directly to Russia and have to make a detour through other countries. And this is again an additional burden of logistics and transaction costs.

As such, there will be no shortage of oil in Russia, but there will be a redistribution of the market and an increase in prices. Therefore, there is no need to buy and buy future oil for life – it has an expiration date. But if it is possible to buy oil now for the next MOT, then it is worth doing it. And don’t skimp on car maintenance – consumables aren’t as expensive as repairs.

What is the expiration date of motor oil?

According to GOST, the shelf life of the oil is no more than 5 years. But why is it advisable to replace it once a year, even if the machine is rarely used? Everything is simple…

What's in store for the oil market - expert forecast

Mikhail Kolodochkin, driving expert:

Storing oil in its original unopened container is different from storing it in an engine – especially the amount of oxygen the oil comes into contact with. In a canister or barrel it occupies no more than 5% of the volume, in the engine lubrication system it is many times more, because the engine “breathes” through the crankcase ventilation system. Contact with oxygen and moisture in the air leads to oxidation and aging of the lubricant.

In addition, unlike a metal barrel with a special internal coating, in an engine, oil comes into contact with various metal alloys, which contributes to the occurrence of undesirable chemical reactions and leads to a change in the properties of the oil.

Of course, no one claims that it is guaranteed to “deteriorate” after being in the engine for 365 days, but one cannot promise that all its original properties will be preserved.

Source: Z R


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