Despite the ruble stabilizing in April, new car prices did not return to January levels. The change was minor and limited to specific salons, models, or individual units. Cars remain around one and a half to two times more expensive than in the depths of winter, even though dealers were not offering deep cuts back then.
Price reductions are unlikely in the near term. Delivery schedules are disrupted, assembly lines operate intermittently across the globe, and manufacturing has ground to a halt for many brands. European, Japanese, American, Korean, and Chinese factories have largely paused, creating a global underproduction gap measured in millions of vehicles. Industry insiders note that two German brands have signaled they intend to maintain the deficit for several more years. The logic appears to be simple and blunt: produce less to charge more.
Where and how can one buy new cars today? Are there places offering reasonable prices?
official channels
Lada dealers are marketing intriguing offers. Early in May, Tekhinkom and Torgmash claimed that Grant could be bought for 728 thousand, and Vesta for 1,122,000. In practice, conversations with managers reveal different results: no cars are on the lot at those prices; one Grant is listed at 850 with trade-in and a loan, and Vesta prices under 1.5 million are not actually available.
Logan tends to be pricier, likely equipped with more features and under two million. Rio and Solaris start around two and a half million. Crete sits near four million. Sportage and Santa Fe are best not contemplated.
Kaliningrad Avtotor has been holding Korean cars, but went on a company holiday in May. The Tula plant Haval and the coast’s Mazda Sollers facility are also paused, though the latter two claim they will continue operations at a reduced level.
Even so, Mazda 6, CX-5, and CX-9 remain available. The CX-5 is priced at 3–4 million rubles depending on configuration; the true price likely includes an additional half a million for options.
The ruble exchange rate does not influence prices at the showroom floor and has little effect until global production returns to normal.
grey area
Some gray market traders push last year’s stock, hoping to attract buyers with a price tag like “from 819 thousand.” The reality usually appears once trade-ins and favorable loan terms are mentioned.
For last year’s Renault Duster, asking prices around 770 thousand appear, also with trade-ins and loans. A booking attempt may reveal only Captur with a 1.3 turbo engine and CVT at about 1.5 million, making the Duster seem inflated or misrepresented.
Gray dealers update offers and conditions quickly. They often advertise liquidation to spark interest and then reveal fine print about loan rates, deposits, phased purchases, and mandatory insurance. The base rate can be as low as 8% with a 20% deposit, but if any extras or insurance are not included, the rate climbs to 28% or 48%. There is little hesitation about the practice.
Buying from gray dealers carries real risk. A flood of online ads encourages buyers to seek legal help, because, in many cases, these sellers push cars with hidden faults or demand non-refundable deposits. In practice, a buyer may end up paying near or above the official price, while the vehicles come from sources within the same agencies and are unlikely to be sold at a loss.
Will foreigners help the market
During the early pandemic and subsequent sanctions, it became attractive to buy new cars from neighboring EAEU countries. Last year Belarus offered much cheaper options for many models. This year, Kazakhstan proved favorable in March and April, with some models priced 10–30% below domestic levels.
Armenia followed a similar pattern, though mainly for premium brands imported directly from Europe such as BMW, Audi, Volvo, and Mercedes-Benz. More basic models often arrive at Armenian showrooms from Russian factories and remain a sensible value.
This does not mean everyone should book a flight to Kazakhstan. Market conditions shift quickly. By May, Kazakh dealers raised prices in response to higher Russian demand, and showrooms showed a shortage of affordable models, mirroring conditions at home.
All nuances of car purchasing in Kazakhstan are discussed separately.
Monitoring the market and price dynamics in Belarus and Kazakhstan is worthwhile. There may be moments when supply rises as demand softens, potentially yielding savings of 300–500 thousand rubles.
The state of the market and anticipated price levels can be seen in the number of transporters carrying foreign cars on major highways, which has almost disappeared.
operational forecast
Market analysts generally expect a slight drop in new car prices in the next two to three months, provided all paused factories reopen in the summer. That caveat is significant, as operations remain irregular with frequent interruptions. The broader issue is a global disruption of supply for components and many other goods.
As a result, dealers are likely to keep manipulating prices within a broad band, leveraging perks, trade-ins, insurance, and loan terms. When this may end remains unclear. Shortages and high prices could persist for years. The prudent course is to care for current cars and avoid rushing to replace them.
There are several items to consider for readers following this topic:
– What is the future of the car market? An editor-in-chief from Behind the Wheel shares a forecast here.
– Spare parts and consumables related to TM Za Rulem can be bought in bulk from their corporate store.
– Behind the Wheel also maintains a Telegram channel for updates.