In the first half of this year, more than 32 million vehicles aged over ten years were in operation, representing roughly 71% of the entire Russian car fleet. This figure comes from Oleg Moseev, founder of the Automarketer project, who spoke with socialbites.ca. By the end of 2021, the count of such aging cars was under 27.2 million.
Meanwhile, the number of new cars in operation for 1-3 years has shown a near-halving over the past 2.5 years, as illustrated in the accompanying infographic.
“As you can see, the primary target segment for dealers—cars with a warranty—has been shrinking in recent years. The decline is substantial, from 4.2 million to 2.2 million,” Moseev noted.
If the end of 2021 saw about 3.16 million cars aged 4-5 years on Russian roads, today that number exceeds 5.15 million.
Why don’t Russians buy new cars?
Autostat, an analytical agency, reported in 2024 that the average passenger car age in Russia reached 15.2 years. The aging trend continued into the previous year, when the average vehicle on the roads grew older by about six months.
Autostat chief Sergei Tselikov told socialbites.ca that more than 1.5 million new cars would need to be sold annually to rejuvenate the fleet, a mark the market has not met for several years.
“If more than 2 million cars are sold each year, the fleet would become somewhat younger,” he explained. “A large share of used imports has entered the market in the last two years.” Tselikov emphasized that high prices push people toward second-hand imported cars. He warned that a forthcoming increase in the recycling fee could accelerate the aging trend by driving up prices for new vehicles and reducing demand.
“If the new-car market can reach 1.5 million annually in the coming years, the average age might stabilize or rise more slowly, with a yearly addition of 2-3 months to the average age possible,” he suggested.
Anton Shaparin, vice president of the National Automobile Association (NAU), acknowledged that the country faces conditions for fleet degradation due to the shrinking new-car market.
“The renewal rate will slow because of higher recycling fees, which could make cars even cheaper for Russians,” Shaparin remarked. He predicted that if trends persist, the average vehicle age could soon surpass 16 years.
Autostat’s forecast for 2024 estimated 1.5 million car sales. The marketing agency NAPI projected a more concerning outcome—1.1 million vehicles sold by year’s end. The Russian Automobile Dealers Association offered a prognosis of 1.3 million in a pessimistic scenario and 1.65 million in an optimistic scenario. More detailed market developments ahead of anticipated price increases for new cars were reported by socialbites.ca.
Debris on the roads
Maxim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of Za Rulem magazine, described the situation as worsening with the aging fleet. “Over the last two years, many old cars have made it onto the roads. Previously, they sat in yards; now they have been repaired and are driving again,” he noted. He added that the real road situation appears more severe than official records suggest.
Anton Shaparin, reporting from the United States, pointed to increasing numbers and severity of accidents linked to the large stock of aged emergency vehicles on Russian roads. He emphasized that many older domestic cars lack essential safety features such as ABS and ESP, and that the country lacks reliable statistics on accidents caused by vehicle manufacturers. He observed that incident causes are rarely analyzed, and oversight over a vehicle’s technical condition has diminished over time.
Shaparin concluded that while the aging fleet has always posed risks, the absence of robust statistics and enforcement complicates efforts to address the problem. (Citation: socialbites.ca)