The Ministry of Industry and Trade has published a draft strategy for the development of the Russian automotive industry until 2035. According to the document, automobile production in Russia is shifting towards an increase in the level of localization of automobile components and a decrease in the number of platforms on which cars will be produced in Russia.
By 2035, the new strategy proclaims the quest for technological dominance. The previous document, describing the development of the Russian automotive industry until 2025, announced the integration of Russian enterprises into global supply chains.
“By the end of 2026, the main task is to create products with a level of localization of 90% in the mass segment, and the share of products from national manufacturers should be at least 50%,” the document says. development of the passenger car segment.
By 2035, 50-60% of domestic combustion-engined passenger cars and 20-30% of electric cars will be on the Russian market, with imported cars accounting for the remaining 10-20%.
The document lists among the risks for the domestic auto industry the absence of foreign manufacturers willing to participate in joint ventures in Russia in terms of full technology transfer.
Also, the authors of the strategy fear that restrictions will be imposed by China and other friendly countries, and greater sanctions will be imposed on non-hostile countries.
It also includes the danger of staff turnover and the lack of tools to support component production. Automotive parts and units, whose production needs to be developed in Russia, include small diesel engines, automatic transmissions, fuel equipment, paint materials, ABS and stabilization systems, electrical equipment elements and other necessary components. automobile production.
After the imposition of sanctions in the Russian automotive industry, there was a shortage of parts for automotive electronics and safety systems: in particular, AvtoVAZ began to produce simplified versions of Lada cars without ABS and airbags from the beginning of summer.
According to the document, 2.7 trillion rubles should be spent on research and development (R&D) during this period. Another 500-600 billion rubles are needed to stimulate the demand for domestic automotive equipment. The cost of promoting exports is estimated by the same amount.
“Most of the funding for the investment program should come from businesses,
with government support through various financial and regulatory measures,” the document says.
what’s going on now
Among the strengths of the modern Russian automotive industry, the Ministry of Industry and Trade mentions the volume of production capacity sufficient to meet the needs of the market, as well as the availability of automotive platforms of Russian design. These include developments in electric vehicles and the development of infrastructure for them.
Weaknesses include high dependence on foreign technologies and equipment, as well as high import dependence in the industry in general.
The press service of the GAZ Group told socialbites.ca that automakers have an understanding of the configuration of the future component industry and call light diesel basic projects for commercial vehicles, but noted the need for government funding.
“It is necessary to start the industry component program as soon as possible
and it is important not only that it is stated in the strategy, but also that budget funds are provided for support for the next three years.”
– told the press service of the GAZ Group.
socialbites.ca asked other major Russian automakers about the possibilities of evaluating and implementing the new strategy, but at the time of publication the editors did not receive any answers.
The strategy more or less objectively describes the current situation, but plans for the further development of the industry are for declarative purposes only, believes Sergey Burgazliev, an independent consultant in the automotive industry.
“The project does not specify goals, does not specify sources of funding for the creation of specific developments and components, does not specify specific deadlines for completion of tasks”
Burgazliev draws attention in an interview with socialbites.ca.
Currently, this document is far from being a vital vector for the industry – it is imperative to include certain indicators in the strategy and specify those responsible for achieving them, he thinks.
Anton Shaparin, vice-president of the National Automobile Association, believes that the development of the Russian automotive industry is impossible without the formation of a strong industry for the production of demanded auto parts in the countries with which Russia continues to cooperate.
“Without large circulations and the export of components, there will be no normal cost of spare parts for Russian cars, and without this there will be no Russian cars themselves.
In an interview with socialbites.ca, Shaparin states that for this strategy to “take off”, Turkey must follow its path and create a strong ingredients industry. Now it is said that 2.7 trillion rubles should be spent on R&D, but it is not clear where it will come from,” he said.
The published draft strategy acknowledges the fact that there is no development and production of a long list of main automotive components and assemblies in Russia, the availability of internal combustion engines in Russia in 2035 and the supply of components even from friendly countries is a threat. reflects reality to the automotive industry, but the planning horizon is far away, he adds.