At a dealer conference in Sochi, AvtoVAZ showed the Lada X-Cross 5, a crossover of the future, a Chinese FAW Bestune T77. The photo and video of the new car was previously published on the Telegram channel by Maxim Kadakov, the editor-in-chief of Za Rulem magazine. SKD assembly of cars under the Lada brand at the plant in St. Petersburg (ex-Nissan plant) should begin at the end of May.
Independent automotive industry consultant Sergey Burgazliev believes that in the medium term, the transition to Chinese platforms seems inevitable given the high cost of developing new car platforms and the impossibility of the Russian auto giant to design a new car from scratch.
“AvtoVAZ has almost no competence left – neither engineering nor technological. If they develop something, then only with contractors from friendly countries, mainly China, Turkey, India and, theoretically, Egypt, ”Burgazliev tells socialbites.ca.
According to him, AvtoVAZ will “finish” the existing model range and continue its production as long as possible before moving to the Chinese technological base.
“I think Granta will last 3-4 more years because of its availability and government support. With Vesta, the situation is more complicated because it has many rivals.
Somehow, it can last for five years, and then colleagues from the Celestial Empire know where to develop AvtoVAZ,” notes Burgazliev.
According to him, the development of the platform “from the ground up” costs about 1.5-2 billion dollars, it should include body, suspension and interior design, but not only FAW, but using existing units (engine, transmission, suspension). Exterior modernization (“make-up”) of the model with the placement of the Lada logo.
Burgazliev stated that the return on investment in the platform will be achieved when its circulation reaches approximately 1.2-1.4 million vehicles.
According to him, in these circumstances it makes sense for AvtoVAZ to continue cooperation with FAW, which at the moment not only acts as a supplier of car kits, but also has the competence to develop new cars, and most importantly, owns its own car. components. He can make a finished car faster and cheaper than a Russian car company.
The advantage of the old AvtoVAZ model line is that these cars can be produced even in strict isolation conditions, albeit in a simplified form. At the same time, the partner of the Avtostat analytical agency, Igor Morzharetto, agrees with Burgazliev, given the costs of developing a new platform, sooner or later AvtoVAZ will have to switch to the “Chinese car”.
“AvtoVAZ is in a very difficult situation right now. In his past life, he had quite an interesting prospect with the switch to the Renault platform shared with Dacia (CMF-B). It is unlikely that AvtoVAZ will create a new platform alone at the moment, because it requires huge investments, ”explains Morzharetto.
In such a situation, he believes, the way out may be cooperation with the Chinese, who always “rush” new models to the Russian market before entering Europe.
“Iranian experience has shown that obsolete cars can be manufactured and brought to more or less modern safety requirements. These machines will be on the assembly line for now.
Vesta is more modern and could theoretically be produced for a long time, but this raises the question of reliability of new suppliers, ”adds Morzharetto.
Earlier, AvtoVAZ announced that it has postponed the start of a corporate holiday to the end of spring in order not to announce downtime due to the lack of components, and to test parts from new suppliers, as well as to build stocks of second components. half of the year.
Formerly owned by Nissan, St. Within the framework of cooperation with FAW and SKD car assembly at a plant in St. Petersburg, AvtoVAZ has the ability to quickly bring new models to the market and reduce their sales in case of breakdowns, but so far Maxim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of the magazine “Behind the Wheel” will not switch to Chinese platforms.
“The prospect of the next few years is the production of cars in other larger and more expensive classes that will not compete with the current Lada model range.
It is now impossible to make the same cheap cars as Granta and Niva on the basis of other platforms, ”Kadakov tells socialbites.ca.
In his opinion, the state has an interest in the establishment of an SKD assembly of Chinese cars from the point of view of loading enterprises, and it is important for AvtoVAZ to play in a new field and adopt technologies.
“A feature of inviting partners now is that AvtoVAZ requires not only tool kits, but also technical documentation and the right to localize, modernize and combine them. Perhaps including the model range that AvtoVAZ has, ”says Kadakov.
This means that in the future it can be used on the same Vesta if the engine or transmission is localized in Russia, gives an example.
The official representative of AvtoVAZ asked questions about the deepening of cooperation with FAW and the replacement of the existing Lada series with cars with early Chinese “pedigree”.