What will happen to truck prices – there is a forecast

The main factor influencing price growth was the change in the structure of truck brands and the construction of new supply chains.

Truck demand remained virtually unchanged in 2022 as European brands reduced their supplies to Russia and domestic manufacturers were forced to restructure production of domestic components. European brands have been replaced by Chinese ones, which are actively filling the market and taking their share.

The market called for a review of logistics and the construction of new supply routes, which previously did not exist for such volumes. In addition, the price is affected by the unstable ruble exchange rate, which prompted importers to play it safe and include risk in the price.

The main price increase was for KAMAZ (dump trucks and tractors ~25%), Ural (low loaders ~30%), which are increasing in price since 2021, as well as European brands (Scania, Volvo and MAN – from 30 to 50%).

If we talk about Chinese brands, the growth is insignificant compared to the rest: Shacman ~ 15%, Howo ~ 10%. Price growth here is held back by sustaining demand, competition between manufacturers for market share, competition between importers through equipment subsidization, and end-users using new resources to attract customers.

Price dynamics modeled on popular truck models

KAMAZ (tractor): the weighted average price for a truck tractor in early 2022 started around 7.8 million rubles. Throughout the year, the price changed, but finally by the end of the year it reached the level of 7 million rubles:

KAMAZ (dump truck): the picture is about the same. We see an increase in prices in March and at the end of the year. The price started in January from 6.6 million rubles. In March, there was an increase to 8 million rubles, and by the end of the year the price stabilized at around 7 million rubles.

The average price for a GAZ truck at the beginning of the year started at 3.5 million rubles. By the end of the year, the cost rose to 4.7 million rubles:

At Shacman, the price in December 2022 remained at the January level – 8.1 million rubles. Only a clear peak in March is visible:

Expert opinion

Nikita Akhmerov, truck expert from Alfa-Leasing Group of Companies:

— I think the price growth trend will remain at 2022 levels. Other things being equal, we can say that the market will continue the current trend for some time (~10%). As last year’s practice shows, the market is able to rebuild quickly and current events have rather positively influenced demand. Construction of new logistics has been underway since the beginning of 2022, which allows us to gradually reduce costs and compete for market share.

I do not think that parallel imports can significantly influence trends, but rather will create an additional incentive to curb price growth.

As the market fills with Chinese brands, the main manufacturers will strengthen their positions in 2023 and maintain current prices. Here, rather, a scenario is possible when customers who do not trust Chinese brands, but believe in European brands, are willing to pay too much for a European car, counting on higher quality, even if it is a used car. The share of such customers will be, but not so high that importers will fall sharply in price. On the contrary, parallel import sellers, on the other hand, will make money from such customers, motivating the price with supply issues.