Prices in the Russian car market may increase by 10% in 2023, and the shortage of cars will continue, despite the growing popularity of the parallel import scheme, car dealers told socialbites.ca.
“The cost of cars will not decrease in 2023, it will directly depend on the exchange rate.
Unless external factors change the situation significantly, it is likely that prices will increase by 10% from current ones.”
Andrey Olkhovsky, CEO of Avtodom Group of Companies, told socialbites.ca.
Alexey Starikov, Deputy General Manager for New Car Sales at Avilon, explained that, depending on the current conditions in the automobile market, one of the main trends in 2023 will be automobile shortage, which will continue to affect sales and affect market dynamics. NETWORK.
“We can expect that in the near future the cost of new cars will not change, prices will remain in the same position.
Regarding price changes, I will also note the effect of the exchange rate – if the exchange rate rises, prices will also increase, ”says Starikov.
Sergey Burgazliev, an independent consultant in the automotive industry, admits that there are still no prerequisites for car prices to fall.
“Prices will remain at the current level in the absence of specific geopolitical events and additional sanctions packages. I don’t see any bright prospects in the market,” Burgazliev shared.
All good used cars in the segment from 1 million to 2.5 million rubles have already been sold,
and in the “secondary market” there were either illiquid assets or an expensive premium segment. Burgazliev is confident that now drivers will pay special attention to their cars.
Tatyana Arabadzhi, head of Russian Automotive Market Research Analytics, explains that the increase in prices was affected both by the depreciation of the ruble (hence the prices of cars, including domestic ones due to imported components) and the number of cars available in stock. Agency.
“We will certainly not see a sharp drop in prices and a return to previous levels. But if the ruble exchange rate remains constant, then there will be no increase in car prices. dealers say so
There are fewer people who want to buy even popular cars, because their prices have increased significantly,” says the interlocutor.
Commenting on the situation with prices, AvtoVAZ said that they will “make every effort to control the cost of their cars.”
“The cost of cars is determined by a number of factors. It is affected by the overall macroeconomic environment, the cost of materials and components, logistics costs, consumer demand, and more. In the current situation, it is difficult to predict any price trends for the next year,” he said.
“Gray” import won’t help
Tatyana Arabadzhi explains that the volume of cars imported through parallel imports will not meet the needs of the market. 1.5 million cars imported in this way were sold last year, and it is expected to be half that number next year. This is a very expensive logistics plan and dealers are not interested in importing cheap cars.
“It is not worth relying on the fact that parallel imports to the Russian Federation will bring cars at pre-crisis prices,” he says.
Arabadzhi thinks that, due to the risk of secondary sanctions, automakers can lower their car supply quotas to Kazakhstan and Belarus so that new cars do not enter the Russian Federation.
But Sergey Burgazliev is confident that cars in Belarus and Kazakhstan will still be cheaper than in Russia.
“There is a different demand in neighboring countries than in Russia, and there are no government programs that can cover 20 percent of the cost of a car bought on credit. For example, in Kazakhstan Lada Vesta was sold on average 200 thousand rubles cheaper, while in Belarus Geely prices were lower than in Russia.
Parallel imports will not constitute more than 10% of total automobile sales next year,
Andrey Olkhovsky, CEO of Avtodom Group of Companies, says:
“We see many problems with parallel imports, this solution is temporary and should be abandoned in the future. The dealer representative does not solve any problems for the consumer, except for the delivery of the car itself, ”says.
The source is confident that in 2023, the volume of automobile sales will not exceed 800,000 units.
The main trends affecting the Russian market will directly depend on the general situation outside Russia. Olkhovsky believes that as part of parallel imports, significant restrictions will be placed on the supply of cars. The source points out that in the current realities, it is important not to restrict the import of automobiles and motorcycles, but to create the legislation regulating the supply for the Ministry of Industry and Trade.
They said they imported it under the parallel import program in Avilon.
Volkswagen Bora, Volkswagen ID.6, Audi Q5 E-Tron, FAW Bestune T99 and Besturn B70, Jeep Grand Cherokee and other models.
“Now such plans for importing cars are noticeably developing on the market, dealers have in stock, among other things, such models that have never been presented on the Russian market before. However, you must understand that parallel imports will not completely change the situation with the dynamics of the automobile market, as it will not be able to meet all the demands,” confirms Aleksey Starikov.
going to china
AvtoVAZ and Chinese manufacturers will dominate the primary car market in 2023, Sergey Burgazliev is sure. Imports of premium segment cars will continue through parallel imports as well as various exotic cars that were not previously represented in our market.
“Dealers will try to survive in parallel imports, but this will not save the situation, so we are having a hard time.
As for electric cars, they will try to sell them to everyone as long as there is money for subsidies. Subsidies are received by Evolute, theoretically Moskvich will also join them. However, mass sales of tens of thousands of vehicles should not be expected.”
While importing cars from other countries, dealers will also look for cheaper spare parts suppliers. As a rule, the cheaper the parts, the worse. The specialist states that the dealers will try to buy the spare parts cheaper and sell them more expensive, the quality of the parts will decrease and all this will affect the operational safety.
“Now the key role in the Russian market is occupied by Chinese manufacturers. The leaders in sales will be cars of Chinese brands, given the local assembly of wheelless car kits. Next will be AvtoVAZ, then everything else, ”said Olkhovsky, general director of Avtodom Group of Companies.
According to the 2022 11-month results, AvtoVAZ maintains its leadership in the Russian market with 165,000 Lada cars sold, knowledgeable Automobile Manufacturers Committee of the Association of European Enterprises (AEB) in Russia. They are followed by Kia and Hyundai (63,000 and 54,000, respectively), Renault and GAZ (34,000 each). The second five are occupied by two Chinese brands – Haval (29 thousand units), Geely (21 thousand units). Less than 549 thousand cars were sold in our country in 11 months: the decrease was almost 61 percent compared to the same period of the previous year.