When will we switch to electric cars? Named after the real date

A year ago, the government approved the Concept for the development of the production and use of electric vehicles until 2030. We analyze real statistics, summarize interim results and make conservative predictions.

Where do they take it?

Most of all new electric vehicles this year were sold in Moscow (785 units), Moscow region (241), St. Petersburg (179) and Krasnodar region (150). Everything is logical – the regions are not poor. And the latter also has a warm climate, which is most suitable for the operation of electric vehicles. The rest of the regions didn’t even make it to fifty copies.

It is curious: despite the global crisis, the demand for electric vehicles is growing. Almost all of them have double and even triple digit growth. But such fantastic results are explained by the low base. The smaller the absolute indicators, the greater the increase in the relative ones.

For example, in the Voronezh region, the growth is as much as 429%, but only 37 electric trains have been sold. If the Russian car market “collapses” by about 60% this year, then the “green” model segment will add about 11%. True, it is less than 0.5%.

The lion’s share of new electric vehicles is purchased in the Central and European part of Russia. They account for almost 95% of the demand. But second-hand in Siberia and the Far East is already 31%. Naturally, these regions are dominated by right-hand drive models imported from Japan.

Who’s in demand?

As of November 1, of the 23.3 thousand hybrids and electric vehicles registered in Russia, more than half (52.9%) are Nissan, according to Avtostat. The Leaf hatchback has not been officially delivered to us, but these five-door hatchbacks can be found in abundance on the secondary market in two generations. The oldest sell for the price of used Grants, although some have a measly 50-70km range on a full charge.

Next in the list of the most popular brands are Tesla (10.4%), Mitsubishi (9.8%), Porsche (4.5%), BMW (3.9%), Toyota and Volvo (3 each, 4%), Audi (3.1%), Chevrolet (2.4%) and Jaguar (1.3%). We haven’t officially sold cheap electric cars, but the number of electric Nissans proves that there is a demand for them, and a decent one.

Of the expensive units, the Jaguar I-Pace appeared first at the dealers, followed by the Audi e-tron and the last Porsche Taycan. And the question about them was in reverse order – the “British” is now the most unpopular.

But soon the hierarchy will change. Nissan Leaf hundreds will of course not stop importing. As well as dozens of expensive premium electric vehicles. However, the fleet of electric vehicles will mainly be filled with other brands.

The Evolute factory was launched, the Skywell brand was launched, and in 2023 it promises to mass-produce electric versions of the revived Moskvich. Their total circulation for 2023 should be several thousand copies. Evolute alone expects to make 15,000 cars. And the “grey” import of previously unknown electric models from around the world will provide additional diversity.

Electric car – for the masses?

And yet a full-fledged electric car for the masses in Russia will not become in the near future. A survey on our website showed that 43.8% of motorists are not considering such a purchase at all. Another 35.1% are waiting for the “trains” to get cheaper. Of the remaining 21.1%, more than a quarter (5.6%) would definitely choose Tesla. Another 4.2% are willing to take an exclusivity from the “grey” stocks. The rest look at the officially presented models.

A similar Avtostat poll showed excellent numbers, but the response structure is similar. 32.4% of the respondents are ready for an electric car, 40.3% are not considering it. The main obstacle is the high cost (54.1%). In second place comes the growth of the charging station network (49.7%). But if there is no need to wait for a radical reduction in the cost of electric vehicles, then in terms of infrastructure, there are positive developments in Russia.

Where to charge?

Russia in the branching of the network of electric filling stations is still much inferior to the leading world powers.

The absolute leader is China with 3.92 million charging points. There are 330,000 in the European Union, 140,000 in the US and 4,367 in Russia. Of these, only 688 are fast. But this is exactly what is needed to make electric cars no less convenient than petrol and diesel cars. On powerful speakers, you can charge the battery to 50% or more in half an hour or an hour.

Thanks to mandatory registration with each of the 35 Russian charging station operators, the number of users is known: 19,650 people who perform more than 70,000 charging sessions per month. One car can have multiple accounts in operator applications (several family members use it, for example), so the actual number of electric vehicles using specialized chargers is smaller. The rest apparently use the domestic network exclusively.

Slow AC stations are most in the Moscow region (630), Moscow (360) and the Krasnodar Territory (220). Moscow (68), Krasnoyarsk Territory (51, not to be confused with the hot Krasnodar Territory) and Primorye (45) lead in fast DC points.

What about the outlook?

By the end of 2024, 2,900 fast and 9,400 slow charging stations must be operational in Russia. Chargers are not cheap, but this year only 12 regions of the country receive state subsidies for their installation. This is 1.37 billion rubles for 493 electric filling stations. Moreover, only part of the cost is subsidized: 60% of the cost of the terminal and 30% of the cost of work, but for an amount not exceeding 2.76 million rubles.

And by the end of 2030, they plan to launch 72,000 fast and 28,000 slow charges. It seems like a fantasy. However, let’s take a look at the dynamics of development in the coming period.

I really want us not to be left out of global electromobilization trends. There are no longer any problems with the supply (although, of course, there are not enough really available models). It’s about infrastructure.

The plans are wonderful – it has yet to be executed. And if all goes well, in a few years at least a third of new cars sold in Russia will be electric. And buyers (according to the survey) are already waiting for them.

Expert commentary

Konstantin Alyabiev, General Manager of PUNKT E:

– In 2022, the charging infrastructure in Russia, while lagging behind in development compared to the original plans, was still ahead of the fleet of electric vehicles. The latter has grown by tens of percent and the number of fast charging stations has increased several times. So the PUNKT E network alone has grown six times over the year. And other major players have each installed dozens of fast stations. The federal program also contributed to the active development of the infrastructure: thanks to this program, more than a hundred stations of 150 kilowatts appeared in the pilot regions. At the beginning of the year, there were only a few such exercises in Russia. At the moment it can be said that the charging infrastructure in many regions is ready for mass distribution of electric vehicles. And taking into account the plans, it will not lag behind the park in the future.