Alexey Starikov, deputy general manager for new car sales of Avilon AG, told socialbites.ca that car stocks in the Russian market may run out by the end of December. Cars of Chinese and Russian brands, which are among the leaders in sales, are not affected by this trend.
“Of course, the stock of cars in the market continues to fall as the deficit still exists.
It can be expected that current balances will be sufficient for dealers to trade for an average of 2-4 months, while maintaining the current pace of sales.
This figure varies by make and model. If the pace of sales changes, the terms will also be reduced or extended, ”explains Starikov.
Andrey Olkhovsky, managing director of Avtodom Group of Companies, says that dealers have almost exhausted the stock of cars they created at the beginning of SVO. Currently, the company’s dealers have more than 50 Audi cars, as well as BMW, Mini, Mercedes-Benz cars.
“Many companies are likely to close at a loss in the fourth quarter of 2022 due to external factors affecting demand and sales conditions,” he believes.
The AvtoSpetsCentre Group of Companies confirms the trend – since its deliveries are renewable, the company has the most cars from Chinese and Korean manufacturers at its dealerships. For other brands in the mass segment, an average of 30 cars remained, depending on the brand. The least common premium segment cars are Porsche and Infiniti.
By the end of 2022, no more than 450-500 thousand cars will be sold in Russia,
Guess at AvtoSpetsTsentr Group of Companies. This is three times less than in “covid” 2020, when 1.6 million cars were sold (according to calculations by the AEB Automobile Manufacturers Committee).
Sergey Tselikov, general director of the Avtostat analytical agency, says that American cars remain at dealers in European and Japanese parts quantities – very little. Now about 40 thousand cars are sold per month, in December this number may increase to 50 thousand. considers it as the addressee due to corporate sales.
“The stocks will decrease, only the imports made by individuals within the scope of conditional parallel imports will remain. China will continue to supply and assemble cars, increasing its market share together with AvtoVAZ and UAZ,” he explains.
Independent auto industry consultant Sergei Burgazliev is sure that stocks will run out – new cars are not expected, except for those produced in Russia, and parallel imports will not save the situation.
“From January or early February next year, dealers will be faced with the fact that there will be nothing left to sell.
And this is the most realistic scenario. Not a single plant will be installed before the end of the year. The expert summarized that only AvtoVAZ, Haval, Geely, UAZ, GAZ Group and KamAZ remained.
Prices will not drop
Andrey Olkhovsky, general director of Avtodom Group of Companies, says that the cost of cars will not decrease until the end of the year, there are no prerequisites for their replacement.
“Demand was very volatile – it dropped to almost zero at the beginning of the mobilization. There is no priority in buying a car when there is a high probability of taking action.
Another point of the decrease in demand was the significant increase in the refusal of loans from banks to men, ”explains Olkhovsky.
The addressee states that now pent-up demand has formed. The exit of some solvent-using customers from Russia also affected sales of used cars.
In general, people’s needs have changed, he argues, where buying a car has ceased to be a very important task.
Since the beginning of autumn, the cost of both new and used cars has not changed, there has been no increase or decrease in the market, but now discounts of up to 4 million rubles have appeared in the new car segment, notes Alexey Starikov from Avilon.
Chinese Volkswagen
A new model for the market, the Bora, will go on sale in the coming weeks, despite Volkswagen’s suspension of operations in Russia.
This is the first serial model of one of the most popular brands in the Russian Federation, imported through parallel import.
Currently, 1,000 Chinese-made Bora sedans are planned to be supplied to the Russian Federation. The first batch will contain 259 cars.
“We are recording a high demand for this modification, as the entire market is currently experiencing a very pronounced shortage of sedans. The first delivery of Volkswagen Bora is scheduled for the first days of November, Avilon told socialbites.ca.
Volkswagen Bora with an atmospheric engine (1.5 l; 113 hp) will cost 2.49 million rubles, and with a turbocharged engine (1.4 l; 150 hp) – 100 thousand rubles.
In China, the fourth generation Bora model has been produced at the FAW-Volkswagen JV factory since 2018 and is built on the MQB platform (Tiguan, Golf, Octavia, Karoq and many other models of concerns are based on it). In Russia, cars will be offered in the maximum Elite configuration. Volkswagen Bora is equipped with an 8-inch infotainment system, cruise control, rear parking sensors, climate control and other options.
In other models imported through parallel imports, only premium brands are supplied to the country.
The list includes Range Rover, Land Rover Defender, Range Rover Sport, the new Jeep Grand Cherokee, as well as the new Volkswagen ID.6 and Audi Q5 E-tron electric vehicles, Alexey Starikov, deputy general manager for sales of the new Avilon. cars, lists. Avtodom Group of Companies General Manager Andrey Olkhovsky states that models of Volvo and Jaguar brands are also supplied within the scope of parallel imports.
The importation of thousands of Volkswagen Bora into Russia is an experiment to evaluate how Russians will buy Chinese cars of a familiar and familiar brand.
Believes the general director of the agency “AUTOSTAT” Sergey Tselikov.
“Dealers are actively looking for what to bring and what to put in the showroom. In the case of Avilon and Volkswagen Bora, logistics is adjusted, it turns out at what price the cars can be imported, demand is forecasted. The structure of the market is changing dramatically – everything created for 20 years has been destroyed. In the nineties – then the sellers did their best,” explains Tselikov.
Sergey Burgazliev, an independent consultant in the automotive industry, agrees that the practice will return to Russia, where the dealer will act as the importer as it was from the mid-90s to the early 2000s. Sellers said they will continue to import bulk cars through parallel imports after Volkswagen Bora.
“I doubt there will be a queue of 2.5 million rubles for Volkswagen Bora. I think that the entire circulation can be sold in three months, but this will not be a salvation for the market,” he said.